Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 201456
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND
W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE
SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD
A BIT AS WELL INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SARATOGA REGION.
MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME
CLOUDS REACH THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 200840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 200720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 200720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 200525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 200525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 200257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 957 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO...SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
CNTRL-ERN NY INTO PA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.  CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MIN LOOKS GOOD IN THE TEENS TO
L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. T/TD/RH
TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM EST...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM EST...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

 &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT THE SAME
TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

 &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT THE SAME
TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191638
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1138 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191638
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1138 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS...SUGGESTING FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS...CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/HELDERBERGS AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OCCASIONALLY EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INDEED EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING COMBINES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. MAY
NEED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE WITH NEXT UPDATE PENDING TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE/SFC OBS.

THE FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH...ALTHOUGH IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP/EXPAND
SOUTHWARD...MAX TEMPS COULD REBOUND BY AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES FROM
CURRENT LEVELS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. FOR NOW...STILL EXPECTING
MAINLY LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY
EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND
SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY
EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND
SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 190947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY
EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND
SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 190947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY
EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND
SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. ONE SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HARD TO SEE ON THE UPSTREAM RADARS. HOWEVER SOME STATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE REPORTED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND EAST CENTRAL
CATSKILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCED THE CHANCES WHILE DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE ERN DACKS AND CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY COLD...BRISK
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES IS KEEPING MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT AT KPSF.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER FOR THE
VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT IN PLACE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 190553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. ONE SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HARD TO SEE ON THE UPSTREAM RADARS. HOWEVER SOME STATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE REPORTED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND EAST CENTRAL
CATSKILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCED THE CHANCES WHILE DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE ERN DACKS AND CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY COLD...BRISK
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES IS KEEPING MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT AT KPSF.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER FOR THE
VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT IN PLACE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 190300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE...AS PIECES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIVOT
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE SHORT-WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH ARE MOVING TOWARDS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PCPN HAS
BEEN HARD TO SEE ON THE UPSTREAM RADARS...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING...AND THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ERN
DACKS AND CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY COLD...BRISK AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS. IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE GRIDS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT IT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO TOMORROW.

EXPECT LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/POU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERCIGS IN THE 1.2-2.0 KFT AGL AT KPSF. SOME SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KPSF...SO A VCSH GROUP WAS USED THERE.

EXPECT THE CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE FRI
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KALB EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BE FROM THE NW TO N AT 5-10 KTS...AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KTS IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 190300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE...AS PIECES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIVOT
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE SHORT-WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH ARE MOVING TOWARDS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PCPN HAS
BEEN HARD TO SEE ON THE UPSTREAM RADARS...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING...AND THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ERN
DACKS AND CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY COLD...BRISK AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS. IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE GRIDS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT IT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO TOMORROW.

EXPECT LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/POU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERCIGS IN THE 1.2-2.0 KFT AGL AT KPSF. SOME SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KPSF...SO A VCSH GROUP WAS USED THERE.

EXPECT THE CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE FRI
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KALB EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BE FROM THE NW TO N AT 5-10 KTS...AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KTS IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 190011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST
SOME CHANGES TO THE T/TD/RH/SKY TRENDS AND LOWERING THE POPS A BIT
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE LATER THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO TOMORROW.

EXPECT LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/POU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERCIGS IN THE 1.2-2.0 KFT AGL AT KPSF. SOME SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KPSF...SO A VCSH GROUP WAS USED THERE.

EXPECT THE CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE FRI
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KALB EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BE FROM THE NW TO N AT 5-10 KTS...AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KTS IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 182331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST
SOME CHANGES TO THE T/TD/RH/SKY TRENDS AND LOWERING THE POPS A BIT
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE LATER THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 182331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST
SOME CHANGES TO THE T/TD/RH/SKY TRENDS AND LOWERING THE POPS A BIT
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE LATER THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 182128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 182116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...STILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/TUG HILL REGION INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE -8 TO -10 C
RANGE...SO SNOWFLAKES MOST LIKELY ARE OF A GRAINY CONSISTENCY
RATHER THAN LARGE AND DENDRITIC...AND THEREFORE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING VSBYS...BUT NOT ACCUMULATING VERY WELL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS IN THIS REGION OF GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WEST FACING...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES.

ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN EVEN OCCASIONALLY
EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...AND SE
VT. STRONG DOWNSLOPING DUE TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING FOR THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH SUNSET...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE FAR SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. IN
THESE AREAS WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR...MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...VALLEY AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD BETWEEN 35 AND 40...WITH MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY
REACHING 30-35...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 1800 FT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA MAY ONLY JUST REACH
AROUND 30.

BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY AT 10-20
MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH...ESP WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
LATE AT NIGHT.

CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 181749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA












000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities