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000
FXUS61 KALY 031417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND. COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHING AS IT EXITS EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM WHERE THERE IS STILL WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SOME LINGERING UPPER DYNAMICS. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS RIGHT
NOW BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO REFORM IN THOSE
AREAS. SOME PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS OR BRIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THROUGH CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...
AND MAYBE TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH BREAKS AND
BRIGHTENING...WHILE MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 50S MANY AREAS...MAYBE NEAR 60 WHERE
THE BREAKS AND BRIGHTENING OCCUR. MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO KPOU/KPSF INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KALB...AND WELL SOUTH OF
KGFL. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AT
KPSF...AND LIKELY MVFR AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT KPOU THROUGH 15Z. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO
MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN VFR RANGE.

CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR LOOKS TO BE AT KPSF/KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 031122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS MADE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR AS THE STEADIEST LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO KPOU/KPSF INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KALB...AND WELL SOUTH OF
KGFL. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AT
KPSF...AND LIKELY MVFR AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT KPOU THROUGH 15Z. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO
MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN VFR RANGE.

CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR LOOKS TO BE AT KPSF/KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS MADE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR AS THE STEADIEST LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 030818
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM NEAR
THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN NY
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE RAINFALL HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED
ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR FOR THE STEADIEST LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED
HERE THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 030546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 030532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 030121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE FA TEMPORARILY...PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST.

THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS ALREADY WORKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR N AND W AS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A MORE NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE LIKELY...AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 022220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 022049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL
REGION..EXTENDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 021321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER BASED
ON RADAR AND SATELLLITE TRENDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AQND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WELL...DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 021031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA/MD/WV BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
OUTPUT...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH
MOVING INTO N-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO ERN NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD
ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS NOON TO THE MID
PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 020814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA-MD BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH MOVING INTO
W-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD INTO ERN
NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS IN THE EARLY
TO MID PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A RUMBLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 012008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 011621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 010230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 010229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 010001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION...SO
FAR...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT WAS STILL MILD OUT WITH MANY VALLEYS ENJOYING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WAS LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S.

OVERNIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN.
RAIN...WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED WELL TO SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
PA...WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE
ELSE IN OUR REGION.


THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED
A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 301611
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





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