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000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY
FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 900 AM EST...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
UPSLOPE-FAVORED TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES IN
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WITH 1-3 INCHES
GENERALLY EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AN INCH OR LESS
IS EXPECTED.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER ACROSS THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF
THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH
THE FA TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S
SOUTHEAST. WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25
MPH AT TIMES...IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ABOUT TEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 110838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE
DAY. AREAS WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY RECEIVE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF
WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND THE BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2
INCHES IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 110529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 110529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 110521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1000 PM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN PRETTY STEADY FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS
SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND MUCH OF FULTON COUNTY...EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF REPORT. ATTEMPTED TO FETCH REPORTS OF NEW SNOW
VIA FACEBOOK AND OTHER SOURCES OF MEDIA...BUT SO FAR HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL SNOW REPORTS. PROBLEM IS MUCH OF
ACTIVITY WAS FALLING IN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH ALL THE HEADLINES. BASED ON
RADAR UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MIGHT HAVE FALLEN IN AREAS
NEAR AND ALONG 29A.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DUSTING (AT MOST) IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 700 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL OVER
MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL AS
INTO THE UPSLOPE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AWHILE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE 30-35 IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TINKERED WITH HOURLY GRIDS WHILE
OVERALL THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE.


LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE
NE CONUS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES COLDER AND WINDS ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADIRONDACKMOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DROP SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 110014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 700 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL OVER
MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL AS
INTO THE UPSLOPE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AWHILE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE 30-35 IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TINKERED WITH HOURLY GRIDS WHILE
OVERALL THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE.


LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE
NE CONUS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES COLDER AND WINDS ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADIRONDACKMOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DROP SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 110014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 700 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL OVER
MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL AS
INTO THE UPSLOPE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AWHILE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE 30-35 IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TINKERED WITH HOURLY GRIDS WHILE
OVERALL THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE.


LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE
NE CONUS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES COLDER AND WINDS ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADIRONDACKMOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DROP SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 102047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE
NE CONUS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES COLDER AND WINDS ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS BAND TO DROP SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 10F OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER AT KGFL THIS AFTN...AND WITH INVERVALS OF
CIGS 2-3KFT AT PSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW...WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS
10-15KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24KTS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO BTV
NEAR TERM...WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...WFO BTV
LONG TERM...WFO BTV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 101735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1235 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY UNTIL 6
PM EST THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AS OF 1232 PM EST...MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, AS WELL AS ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH
THESE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(ADDITIONAL 1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THRU 23Z). HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S FOR THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT S-SW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A
COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME
TIME A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY
LATE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER AT KGFL THIS AFTN...AND WITH INVERVALS OF
CIGS 2-3KFT AT PSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW...WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS
10-15KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24KTS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11/WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 101336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY UNTIL 6
PM EST THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AS OF 830 AM EST...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A FEW TENTHS UP TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 101336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY UNTIL 6
PM EST THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AS OF 830 AM EST...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A FEW TENTHS UP TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 101336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY UNTIL 6
PM EST THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AS OF 830 AM EST...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A FEW TENTHS UP TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 101137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 101137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 101137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE SNOW SHOWERS RATHER SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...LATEST SFC OBS...AND 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE...SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

AFTER MID MORNING OR SO...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY VFR WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 101128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 101128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 100837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ONCE THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS.  IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS.  AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

EITHER WAY LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST WITH
A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS
WE UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S VALLEYS...UPPER TEENS TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 100538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

EITHER WAY LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST WITH
A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS
WE UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S VALLEYS...UPPER TEENS TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 100538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

EITHER WAY LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST WITH
A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS
WE UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S VALLEYS...UPPER TEENS TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 100529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

EITHER WAY LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST WITH
A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS
WE UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S VALLEYS...UPPER TEENS TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BASED ON RADAR AT 0315Z...WE REMOVED ANY IFR FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
LIKELY. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SNOW SHOWERS
(3 SM). THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES LATER ON THURSDAY
(WELL AFTER THE MORNING PEAK). IT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST
AROUND 10KTS AND PERHAPS BRING A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON REGION. SOME NEW ACTIVITY LOOKING TO
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SPEWING PIECES OF ENERGY OUR WAY. THE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCED THE ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EITHER LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SNOW OF NEW SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEY...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESPECIALLY
THE ADIRONDACKS BY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS WE
UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 20 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BASED ON RADAR AT 0315Z...WE REMOVED ANY IFR FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
LIKELY. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SNOW SHOWERS
(3 SM). THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES LATER ON THURSDAY
(WELL AFTER THE MORNING PEAK). IT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST
AROUND 10KTS AND PERHAPS BRING A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON REGION. SOME NEW ACTIVITY LOOKING TO
EVELOP TO OUR SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SPEWING PIECES OF ENERGY OUR WAY. THE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCED THE ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EITHER LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SNOW OF NEW SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEY...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESPECIALLY
THE ADIRONDACKS BY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS WE
UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 20 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON REGION. SOME NEW ACTIVITY LOOKING TO
EVELOP TO OUR SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SPEWING PIECES OF ENERGY OUR WAY. THE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCED THE ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EITHER LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SNOW OF NEW SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEY...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESPECIALLY
THE ADIRONDACKS BY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS WE
UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 20 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 100253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON REGION. SOME NEW ACTIVITY LOOKING TO
EVELOP TO OUR SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SPEWING PIECES OF ENERGY OUR WAY. THE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

EXPECT SCATTERED/OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCED THE ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EITHER LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SNOW OF NEW SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEY...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESPECIALLY
THE ADIRONDACKS BY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS WE
UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 20 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THE SNOW IS MORE OF THE "AGGREGATE" TYPE...BIGGER FLAKES THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT MORE SHOWERY. UNFORTUNATELY MOST MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING
THIS CURRENT TREND. THESE WERE TIED INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR WEST
AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SPINNING OFF AN UPPER AIR LOW STILL PARKED
TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

THERE MIGHT BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE HEAD LIKELY HEAD THIS WAY LATER OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY HEADS OUR WAY.
GENERALLY THE BARK WILL BE WORSE THAN THE BITE IN THAT THESE SHOULD
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE VALLEYS...2 OR 3 INCHES
HIGHER TERRAIN.


TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. DID NOT ADJUST ANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 100004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THE SNOW IS MORE OF THE "AGGREGATE" TYPE...BIGGER FLAKES THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT MORE SHOWERY. UNFORTUNATELY MOST MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING
THIS CURRENT TREND. THESE WERE TIED INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR WEST
AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SPINNING OFF AN UPPER AIR LOW STILL PARKED
TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

THERE MIGHT BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE HEAD LIKELY HEAD THIS WAY LATER OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY HEADS OUR WAY.
GENERALLY THE BARK WILL BE WORSE THAN THE BITE IN THAT THESE SHOULD
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE VALLEYS...2 OR 3 INCHES
HIGHER TERRAIN.


TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. DID NOT ADJUST ANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 100004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
MAINLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THE SNOW IS MORE OF THE "AGGREGATE" TYPE...BIGGER FLAKES THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT MORE SHOWERY. UNFORTUNATELY MOST MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING
THIS CURRENT TREND. THESE WERE TIED INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR WEST
AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SPINNING OFF AN UPPER AIR LOW STILL PARKED
TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

THERE MIGHT BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE HEAD LIKELY HEAD THIS WAY LATER OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY HEADS OUR WAY.
GENERALLY THE BARK WILL BE WORSE THAN THE BITE IN THAT THESE SHOULD
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE VALLEYS...2 OR 3 INCHES
HIGHER TERRAIN.


TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING. DID NOT ADJUST ANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KALB/KPSF THIS EVENING...
BUT KGFL AND EVEN KPOU COULD BE AS WELL.

BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE AT KALB AND WE HAVE A TEMPO
FOR 2SM -SN OVC008 IN THAT TAF THROUGH 03Z (04Z KPSF). HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL KGFL AND KPSF. KGFL WE WENT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AT KGFL AS WELL AS KPOU AS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THESE TWO SITES HAVE
THUS FAR MISSED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  SNOW IS LIGHT SO ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT ...WITH PERHAPS MORE IFR VSBY AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 092136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH EVEN SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN...CLOUDS HAVE
RAPIDLY THICKENED ONCE AGAIN...AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE
EXPANDING N AND E...ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...AS YET ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SWINGS AROUND THE
S/E PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST. INCREASING FORCING
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO INCREASE FROM W TO E...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL F-GEN WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS.

TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...

WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.

THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.

MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.

WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.

THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!

SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 091724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 090931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 431 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 090552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EST...OUR REGION IS STARTING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH IS
BECOMING CLOSED OFF...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM IS OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY....WITH
AN ADDITIONAL SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER VIRGINA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE DEPARTING
COASTAL WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR REGION. AS
THE COASTAL STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THIS SNOWFALL IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. A FEW
LINGERING BANDS ORIENTED IN A NW-SE FASHION CONTINUE...ESP OVER
CENTRAL NY...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. BASED ON THE LATEST 3KM HRRR...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
CONTINUOUS AND STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL JUST BE A COATING TO HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.

ALONG WITH THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE
TROUGH INTRODUCING COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS
WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR
MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS
COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR ANY SQUALLS IS NOT
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE NEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 090333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED REGARDING IT.

IT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH PUT COULD
PUT DOWN AN INCH IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR/S TIME IN SOME
PLACES BEFORE IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

THIS BAND APPEARS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EDGE OF THE LARGE OCEAN STORM.

AFTER THAT BANDS GOES THROUGH...EXPECT ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT
OR SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE SNOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WILL KEEP THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
THAT COUNTY A LITTLE LONGER.

STILL LOOKING FOR A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN MOST PLACES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY...IT LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL RECEIVE
AN AVERAGE OF 3-6 INCHES.


SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE
NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND
EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL WORK OVER KALB THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SO VISIBILITIES THERE
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/2SM (HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THEM THROUGH
04Z.

AFTER THE SNOW TAPER TO FLURRIES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS
(LOW MVFR WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 090201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...RADARS INDICATED THAT BANDS OF LIGHT TO EVEN
AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW...STILL WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION.
IN FACT...WHILE MOISTURE "BACKED IN" FROM THE DEPARTING POWERFUL
STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THESE BANDS OF
SNOW WHICH WERE NO MOVING FROM SW TO NE (AS OPPOSED TO SE-NW WHICH
THEY WERE DOING DURING THE AFTERNOON).

FOR THIS REASON...EXTENDED THE SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWLY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CALL IT PERIODS OF SNOW...REALLY
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT OCCASIONAL SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN
MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 3-6 ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WERE
HALF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON WESTWARD LOOKS
TO RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

BTW...WE HAVE HAD A TWITTER REPORT OF 5 INCHES JUST ESE OF NEW MILFORD
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL. PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS
FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

SO...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR LITCHFIELD WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE
WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.


OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THEN END...WITH LITTLE OR OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
     BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




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