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000
FXUS61 KALY 180537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...SOME CLOUD COVER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS CLOUD
DECK. OTHERWISE...SKC ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR VIS
AT KPOU-KPSF WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 1-2 DEGREES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SOME
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFFECTING KGFL-KPSF.
OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS...THEN WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

THE WINDS AND SKIES WILL ALL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 180537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...SOME CLOUD COVER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS CLOUD
DECK. OTHERWISE...SKC ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR VIS
AT KPOU-KPSF WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 1-2 DEGREES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SOME
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFFECTING KGFL-KPSF.
OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS...THEN WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

THE WINDS AND SKIES WILL ALL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 180537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 100 AM EDT...SOME CLOUD COVER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS CLOUD
DECK. OTHERWISE...SKC ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR VIS
AT KPOU-KPSF WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 1-2 DEGREES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SOME
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFFECTING KGFL-KPSF.
OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS...THEN WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

THE WINDS AND SKIES WILL ALL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 180517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 180517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 180517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/TDY. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND
SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW
RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING
UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE
AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN
ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT
TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND
GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY
REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW
OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY
SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO
BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF
CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE OVER FCA.

TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S
AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 180209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 180209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 172106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 172106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 172034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS AND SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW. THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT
OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND
COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND
PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY
FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR
NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 172034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS AND SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW. THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT
OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND
COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND
PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY
FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR
NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 171739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROGUH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM SKC
FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROGUH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM SKC
FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE EAST OF
REGION...AND ANY LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY WITH FINE WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE EAST OF
REGION...AND ANY LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY WITH FINE WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 170807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA.
PER THE 6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 170807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA.
PER THE 6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER





000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 162025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT WILL
HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T
RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 162025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT WILL
HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T
RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 161409
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...TEMPS RISING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SENDING TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT -
4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MAX TEMP
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 161005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 161005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 160949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
549 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
549 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 160830
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
  ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160830
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
  ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160830
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS NOW AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SOME AS LOW THE MID 20S. WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES. THEY
WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING. THEN...A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO THE 50S
MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. THE
WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
  ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 160523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR CALM WIND AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE...JUST THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS
(LOWERED THEM A LITTLE) AND TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD A
BIT.

AS OF 115 AM EST...THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IS ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY SPOTS WERE NOW IN THE 30S...AND A FEW
OUTLYING AREAS ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT WAS STILL JUST
ABOVE 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S...HIGHEST RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL GOLDEN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A PARTIAL
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE FROST OR DEW BY DAYBREAK
BUT CERTAINLY NOT MUCH.

TODAY...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 5
TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE WRN NEW ENGLAND
TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 160523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR CALM WIND AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE...JUST THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS
(LOWERED THEM A LITTLE) AND TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD A
BIT.

AS OF 115 AM EST...THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IS ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY SPOTS WERE NOW IN THE 30S...AND A FEW
OUTLYING AREAS ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT WAS STILL JUST
ABOVE 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S...HIGHEST RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL GOLDEN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A PARTIAL
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE FROST OR DEW BY DAYBREAK
BUT CERTAINLY NOT MUCH.

TODAY...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 5
TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE WRN NEW ENGLAND
TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR CALM WIND AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE...JUST THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS
(LOWERED THEM A LITTLE) AND TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD A
BIT.

AS OF 115 AM EST...THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IS ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY SPOTS WERE NOW IN THE 30S...AND A FEW
OUTLYING AREAS ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT WAS STILL JUST
ABOVE 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S...HIGHEST RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL GOLDEN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A PARTIAL
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE FROST OR DEW BY DAYBREAK
BUT CERTAINLY NOT MUCH.

TODAY...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 5
TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE WRN NEW ENGLAND
TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 160523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR CALM WIND AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE...JUST THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS
(LOWERED THEM A LITTLE) AND TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD A
BIT.

AS OF 115 AM EST...THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IS ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY SPOTS WERE NOW IN THE 30S...AND A FEW
OUTLYING AREAS ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT WAS STILL JUST
ABOVE 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S...HIGHEST RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL GOLDEN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT OR CALM WIND
IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY LATE MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THOSE GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.



OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A PARTIAL
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE FROST OR DEW BY DAYBREAK
BUT CERTAINLY NOT MUCH.

TODAY...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 5
TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE WRN NEW ENGLAND
TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE APPROACHING CALM. CURRENT
FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 160158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE APPROACHING CALM. CURRENT
FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 160158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE APPROACHING CALM. CURRENT
FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 152314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT FORECAST
AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 152314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT FORECAST
AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 152314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT FORECAST
AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SO...FEW CHANGES IF ANY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
DETAILS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 152207
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND THE RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED AS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 152207
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND THE RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED AS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 152035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND THE RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF E-CNTRL NY
IN THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AS WELL AS THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH
OUR USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

...WIDESPREAD LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 6 PM WITH RH
VALUES MAINLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 152035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORE WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND THE RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF E-CNTRL NY
IN THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AS WELL AS THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH
OUR USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE S/SE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER THE MTNS...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SRN DACKS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...ANOTHER NICE MID
APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY
AS TODAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A
S TO SW SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE. H850 RISE TO
+5C TO +8C. THE MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTING TO BE A DEEP AS
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER
THE MTNS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST BY NIGHTFALL.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OR WARM FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THE GFS/NAM HAVE THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
VALUES FOR MOST THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/FRI. LOWS MAY BE EARLY ON
AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS WAS DONE WITH MINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAYBE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE AFTER THE WET-BULB
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN GRADUAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FCST AREA. ONLY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH MAX TEMPS STILL
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60-65F IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS COME UP WITH THE SYSTEM
BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NORTHEAST RFC WITH TWO TO FOUR TENTHS
POSSIBLE /HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE N/NW BASINS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA/.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS SE QUEBEC AND NRN NY BY 12Z SAT.
VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE CLOUDS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE M30S TO L40S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST LOWER TO M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERA OF QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES.  WE BEGIN
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH BEHIND IT.  THEN THERE/LL BE A PERIOD OF WETNESS FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOWS MOVE
THROUGH.  MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MARKEDLY WETTER WITH AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...
AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.  TUESDAY
NIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN.  THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN...TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT LOWS THAT ARE NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

...WIDESPREAD LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 6 PM WITH RH
VALUES MAINLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
RIDGING IN. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

TOMORROW...THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE
WRN NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 151728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THENIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 151728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THENIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 151728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THENIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 151728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES (MAINLY P6SM)
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM FOR MOST OF THENIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL START OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 151714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 151714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 151714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH DAYS
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/NW TO N/NW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS UP UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL E-CNTRL NY IN
THE ALY FCST AREA...AND BENNINGTON AND ERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF MA DUE TO THE COORDINATION WITH OUR
USERS AND THE NEIGHBORING WFOS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 5
DAYS/ AND RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S COUPLED WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION ARE HITTING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS UPDATE INT THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUSLY LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 151048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH
DAYS WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 645 AM EDT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK ZONES...AS WELL BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION PER ADDITIONAL COORDINATION WITH
BTV...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY (THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY) WAS ADDED AS
WELL.

AT 645 AM EDT...SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY SEND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...QUICKLY RISING.

THE STRONG SUN WILL HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE TO ABOUT THE 6000 OR
7000 FOOT LEVEL. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES
DESPITE A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. IT REMAIN SUNNY WHICH
WILL HELP HEAT TEMPERATURES TO THE 55-60 RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN
PLACES. THE RH WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND DRYNESS OF FUELS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA. MORE ABOUT THE RED FLAG WARNING CAN BE FOUND UNDER OUR FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH OUR STATE FIRE
WEATHER CONTACTS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

CONDITIONS TODAY APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY
LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES. FIRST OF ALL...MOST AREAS DID NOT
HAVE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...WITH RH VALUES ONLY MAXING IN THE
50-75 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST REGION.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 151048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH
DAYS WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 645 AM EDT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK ZONES...AS WELL BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION PER ADDITIONAL COORDINATION WITH
BTV...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY (THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY) WAS ADDED AS
WELL.

AT 645 AM EDT...SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY SEND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...QUICKLY RISING.

THE STRONG SUN WILL HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE TO ABOUT THE 6000 OR
7000 FOOT LEVEL. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES
DESPITE A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. IT REMAIN SUNNY WHICH
WILL HELP HEAT TEMPERATURES TO THE 55-60 RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN
PLACES. THE RH WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND DRYNESS OF FUELS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA. MORE ABOUT THE RED FLAG WARNING CAN BE FOUND UNDER OUR FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK
STATE ZONES...BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS....

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH OUR STATE FIRE
WEATHER CONTACTS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

CONDITIONS TODAY APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY
LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES. FIRST OF ALL...MOST AREAS DID NOT
HAVE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...WITH RH VALUES ONLY MAXING IN THE
50-75 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST REGION.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE
RED FLAG AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO SEE IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 150913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH
DAYS WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK ZONES...AS WELL BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
BERKSHIRES.

AT 430 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS.  THE WIND WAS LIGHT OR CALM. WITH VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE TANKED...GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE DOWN CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S IN MOST PLACES...WITH OUTLYING AREAS 25-30. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE STRONG SUN WILL HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE TO ABOUT
THE 6000 OR 7000 FOOT LEVEL. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME RATHER
GUSTY AT TIMES DESPITE A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. IT REMAIN
SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP HEAT TEMPERATURES TO THE 55-60 RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70. THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN PLACES. THE RH WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND DUE TO THE
TIME OF YEAR AND DRYNESS OF FUELS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. MORE ABOUT THE RED FLAG WARNING CAN BE FOUND
UNDER OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.  &&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK STATE
ZONES...BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN
MASSACHUSETTS....

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH OUR STATE FIRE
WEATHER CONTACTS.

CONDITIONS TODAY APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY
LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES. FIRST OF ALL...MOST AREAS DID NOT
HAVE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...WITH RH VALUES ONLY MAXING IN THE
50-75 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST REGION.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE RED FLAG
AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SEE
IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ013.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 150913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A SUNNY DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZY. BOTH
DAYS WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW
YORK ZONES...AS WELL BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
BERKSHIRES.

AT 430 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS.  THE WIND WAS LIGHT OR CALM. WITH VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE TANKED...GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE DOWN CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S IN MOST PLACES...WITH OUTLYING AREAS 25-30. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE STRONG SUN WILL HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE TO ABOUT
THE 6000 OR 7000 FOOT LEVEL. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME RATHER
GUSTY AT TIMES DESPITE A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. IT REMAIN
SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP HEAT TEMPERATURES TO THE 55-60 RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70. THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HIGHER IN PLACES. THE RH WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND DUE TO THE
TIME OF YEAR AND DRYNESS OF FUELS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. MORE ABOUT THE RED FLAG WARNING CAN BE FOUND
UNDER OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVERYWHERE
AND EVEN CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.

BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXED IN. THE SOUTH WIND WILL
BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C (AS
COMPARED TO ABOUT +3C) SINCE THE MIXING LEVEL WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY...ABOUT 4500 FEET OFF THE DECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FIRST THE WARM FRONT
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MILDER THAN
TONIGHT/S READING DUE TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND THE
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS 35-40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...40-45 IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHERE THE BREEZE
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE A
MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND A ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN...60-65
VALLEY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
ALOFT...A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.  &&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WHERE AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-SCT POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKS.  A BRISK SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WITH THE ECMWF MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE GFS AND GGEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THEN THE VERY ACTIVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DURING MONDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FLOW AND AN
INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE IMPACT
FOR OUR REGION WILL AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE BEST MOISTURE
PROFILES...WE WILL HOLD POPS BACK INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES AT
THIS TIME /THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS
MORNING/.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

SENSIBLE OR ANY CLOUDS) SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING
BY MIDDAY DEEP TO DUE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20KTS FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE
PREVAILING WIND WILL ACTUALLY BE MODEST...GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NEW YORK STATE
ZONES...BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES IN
MASSACHUSETTS....

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH OUR STATE FIRE
WEATHER CONTACTS.

CONDITIONS TODAY APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY
LARGE AND RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES. FIRST OF ALL...MOST AREAS DID NOT
HAVE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...WITH RH VALUES ONLY MAXING IN THE
50-75 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST REGION.

THERE WILL ABUNDANT  SUNSHINE AND BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM 55-60 ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...60S VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW (WELL UNDER 30 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE AND SOME AREAS MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS). THE WIND
WILL BE MARGINALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH IN MOST AREAS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND WINDHAM COUNTY WERE OMITTED FROM THE RED FLAG
AS FUELS IN THESE AREAS WERE NOT DRY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WE WILL BE MONITORED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SEE
IF THESE AREAS MIGHT NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...THE WIND LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AND RH VALUES COME UP
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH BUT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF A MIXING LAYER (MORE IN THE 4500 FOOT
RANGE). THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE MORE...NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL DIPPING TO OR BELOW 30
PERCENT GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUED EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ013.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




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