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000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA






000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...PLENTY CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR THE COUNT
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT A SHARP
DROP OFF TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS (COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER..MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 6000 FEET WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD TOPS. EVEN SO...SHOWERS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE
UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LOOKS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...PLENTY CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR THE COUNT
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT A SHARP
DROP OFF TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS (COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER..MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 6000 FEET WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD TOPS. EVEN SO...SHOWERS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE
UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LOOKS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER











000
FXUS61 KALY 182358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...MOST SCATTERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WERE PLENTIFUL AS THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL STILL WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION...TAPPING INTO SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE CLOUDS...SHOWER COVERAGE
(LOWERED A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS)...AND OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONE MORE VERY WEAK ONE THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...KEEP THE CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 40 IN MOST VALLEYS...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWERS OF
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE
GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER/HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER











000
FXUS61 KALY 182358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...MOST SCATTERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WERE PLENTIFUL AS THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL STILL WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION...TAPPING INTO SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE CLOUDS...SHOWER COVERAGE
(LOWERED A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS)...AND OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONE MORE VERY WEAK ONE THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...KEEP THE CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 40 IN MOST VALLEYS...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWERS OF
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE
GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER/HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER











000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER











000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 181746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT WITH
LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO
MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA






000
FXUS61 KALY 181746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT WITH
LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO
MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CONT
TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT
WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL
CHILLY TO MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CONT
TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT
WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL
CHILLY TO MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 180923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 180923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 180900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 180900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES
OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 180554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS HAVE
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED ON LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS...HRRR-3KM AND HIRESWRF. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT GOTTEN AS COOL AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.  THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
KALB TO KPSF NORTHWARD BTWN 14Z-18Z.  CIGS IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE.  TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.  THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 180228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA














000
FXUS61 KALY 180228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA















000
FXUS61 KALY 172343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY COVER
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA












000
FXUS61 KALY 172343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY COVER
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 172343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY COVER
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA












000
FXUS61 KALY 172343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY COVER
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AT KALB/KPOU AS THE TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...KGFL AND KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 9 KNOTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 172057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 455 PM EDT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDED
WARMING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
FROM THE CATSKILLS...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHOWERS
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 172057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 455 PM EDT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDED
WARMING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
FROM THE CATSKILLS...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHOWERS
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 172057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 455 PM EDT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDED
WARMING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
FROM THE CATSKILLS...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHOWERS
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 172057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 455 PM EDT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDED
WARMING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
FROM THE CATSKILLS...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHOWERS
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO PERSIST IN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY
TEMPS DROP.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING AREAS
MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE
COMBINE.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION
BETWEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LAG JUST BEHIND THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH
COLD MID LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
SHOWERS APPEARING TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TALLER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PASSING THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS MORNING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS INITIALLY FROM RISING MUCH.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING COULD PROMOTE
SOME QUICK WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...WITH
EVEN 65-70 IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN FALL INTO
THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE
SAT NT INTO SUN AM. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL TO MIX IN EVEN ACROSS
SOME VALLEY AREAS SUN AM WITHIN ANY TALLER SHOWERS. ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN VT...A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
BY SUN AM. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN OCCURRING FURTHER E. TEMPS SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID
40S ELSEWHERE. SUN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE VERY MUCH GIVEN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH 45-50 EXPECTED IN MOST
VALLEYS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH
ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES SUN...PERHAPS REACHING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...SO
IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO THE TEPID
WARMTH RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.

SUN NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUN NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. GIVEN THAT
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE QUITE COLD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIN TEMPS SUN NT/MON AM TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF...OR
EVEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD TEMPER WHAT WOULD BE A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST...AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS. BY
MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT DEEPENS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...AND DOES NOT DEPART THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF PCPN DOES
ARRIVE IN TIME.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO CUTOFF. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COMPLETELY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE
MOHAWK RIVER. MOST RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 171726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN...AS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKING MORE INTO THE
SW...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
AND FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO OCCUR IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT. CLOUDS ARE MORE
PREVALENT TO THE N AND W...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. IN FACT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LAKE
MOISTURE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD HAS
RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
SO...WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS S AND E
OF ALBANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE N AND
W...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND...OR A BIT ABOVE 70 IN VALLEY
AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR...AS
WELL AS FURTHER WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S IN MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT ONLY
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 171726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN...AS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKING MORE INTO THE
SW...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
AND FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO OCCUR IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT. CLOUDS ARE MORE
PREVALENT TO THE N AND W...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. IN FACT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LAKE
MOISTURE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD HAS
RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
SO...WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS S AND E
OF ALBANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE N AND
W...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND...OR A BIT ABOVE 70 IN VALLEY
AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR...AS
WELL AS FURTHER WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S IN MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT ONLY
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 171715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...KTYX RADAR DID INDICATE A LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RESULT OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE. THESE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

IT REMAINED DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MORE CLOUDS
NORTH...AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

BASED ON OUR UPPER AIR RAOB AND UPSTREAM WEATHER...SAW NO REASON TO
TINKER WITH TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TRANSLATING TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 171715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...KTYX RADAR DID INDICATE A LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RESULT OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE. THESE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

IT REMAINED DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MORE CLOUDS
NORTH...AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

BASED ON OUR UPPER AIR RAOB AND UPSTREAM WEATHER...SAW NO REASON TO
TINKER WITH TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TRANSLATING TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE KALB AND KGFL TAF
SITES...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE TAFS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH AS THE
STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL AND KPSF AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (VCSH) TO ALL TAFS AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT KPOU WHERE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LOW).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EVENING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE WEST BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 171338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
935 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...KTYX RADAR DID INDICATE A LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RESULT OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE. THESE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

IT REMAINED DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MORE CLOUDS
NORTH...AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

BASED ON OUR UPPER AIR RAOB AND UPSTREAM WEATHER...SAW NO REASON TO
TINKER WITH TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TRANSLATING TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 171338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
935 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DRY DAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND
AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...KTYX RADAR DID INDICATE A LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RESULT OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE. THESE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

IT REMAINED DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MORE CLOUDS
NORTH...AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

BASED ON OUR UPPER AIR RAOB AND UPSTREAM WEATHER...SAW NO REASON TO
TINKER WITH TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TRANSLATING TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 171135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 171135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 171135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 171135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MOVING THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT -SHRA
WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIGHER TRRN OF W ADRNDCKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE A
LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MORNING...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE
TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT
MAINTAINS POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 171058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SNYDER






000
FXUS61 KALY 171058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 171058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 171058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS
THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHWARD. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE READINGS HAS BEEN STEADY AT FLOOD STAGE 403 FEET THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SNYDER






000
FXUS61 KALY 170735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VISIBILITIES IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VISIBILITIES IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL AND POSSIBLY AT KPSF. AFTER SUNRISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD
THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

DRY MILD CONDS WILL PERSIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 170735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VISIBILITIES IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VISIBILITIES IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL AND POSSIBLY AT KPSF. AFTER SUNRISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD
THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AND IT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS IT ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED
IN. SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

DRY MILD CONDS WILL PERSIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORD WERE SET...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY FOR OCTOBER 16TH WAS 61 DEGREES.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
OF 60 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 170700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX
AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL. AFTER
SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

DRY MILD CONDS WILL PERSIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 170700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX
AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED ACROSS THE MDL SUITE BY THE
PHASING OF SVRL 500HPA SHORT WVS ITO A CUTOFF OVER THE
GRTLKS...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THIS IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE GFS TRACKS TO CUTOFF CENTER & ASSOC SFC LOW FM OHIO SE TO
CAPE HAT THEN EJECTS IT NE INT ATLC. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AND WK COASTAL WV...AND PCPN ASSOC WITH TROF
EARLY IN EFP...AND MAINLY SOUTH FCA REST OF THE TIME.

GEM HAS MORE OF A FULL LAT TROF WITH A CUT OFF CENTER NR NJ BY WED
NT...BU IN SPITE OF ITS MUCH FURTHER N TRACK..PCPN IS STILL MAINLY
S & E FCA AREA.

THE ECMWF FORMS THE CUT OFF IN SAM MANNER AS GFS...TAKES CENTER TO
VA CAPES WED...BUT THEN IT PARKS OVER MID ATLC WITH SFC COASTAL LOW
NR NJ AND MUCH MORE SIG QPF OVER FCA.

MID HPC GUID SUG A GFS LIKE TRACK FOR SFC SYSTEM...BUT MAINTAINS
POPS OVER ENTIRE FCA.

BOTTOM LINE...STILL LOW POPS...LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH LARGE
SPREAD IN MDL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO BLOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND CLOUD COVER. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL. AFTER
SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

DRY MILD CONDS WILL PERSIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN OUR HSA EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 170613
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX
AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TO OCCUR MID
TO LATER NEXT WEEK. A VERY DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE JET EXPANDING ACROSS
A LARGE DOMAIN WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE FASTER SECTOR OF THE AGEOSTROPIC JET ACROSS CANADA DETACHES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MAIN FLOW...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS BUT AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO SHIFT WEST FURTHER WITH TIME. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY OF
THE POSITION OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT FROM MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL. AFTER
SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS NOT
IMPACTING ANY OF OUR WATER SHEDS AT ALL ALLOWING FLOWS TO QUICKLY
RECEDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 170613
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. AFTER SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX
AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE AT NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TO OCCUR MID
TO LATER NEXT WEEK. A VERY DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE JET EXPANDING ACROSS
A LARGE DOMAIN WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE FASTER SECTOR OF THE AGEOSTROPIC JET ACROSS CANADA DETACHES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MAIN FLOW...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS BUT AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO SHIFT WEST FURTHER WITH TIME. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY OF
THE POSITION OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT FROM MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SKIES CLEARED OUR ENOUGH EARLIER FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT DECOUPLED. HOWEVER HAVE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLIER MORNING
HOURS THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN. LOOKING AT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT KGFL. AFTER
SUNRISE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MIX AND FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TODAY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS AT THE UTICA HARBOR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER.
THE LEVEL IS AT FLOOD STAGE...403 FEET.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS NOT
IMPACTING ANY OF OUR WATER SHEDS AT ALL ALLOWING FLOWS TO QUICKLY
RECEDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 170509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND THE
MIN TEMP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WIND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT TOTALLY GO CALM.
MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH A LOWERING SUBSTANCE
INVERSION...COULD MEAN THE RETURN OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...
COOLER THAN THE PAST NIGHTS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER DISTURBANCES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LOW...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SOAKING RAINFALL...WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THE NEXT TROUGH...WILL BE DIVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. RISING HEIGHTS OVER OUR IMMEDIATE REGION WILL BRING
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND A MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COULD REAP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. H850 TEMPERATURES WHILE COOLER THAN TODAY...WILL BE
AROUND +6C. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLUMN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 70 IN THE
VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 60 ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE
BE MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TO OCCUR MID
TO LATER NEXT WEEK. A VERY DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE JET EXPANDING ACROSS
A LARGE DOMAIN WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE FASTER SECTOR OF THE AGEOSTROPIC JET ACROSS CANADA DETACHES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MAIN FLOW...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS BUT AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO SHIFT WEST FURTHER WITH TIME. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY OF
THE POSITION OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT FROM MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERING AND SURFACE WIND AND
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED AT LEAST SOME FOG IN ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KPSF. AFTER 13Z ON FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT 8 KTS OR LESS...AND COULD GO CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL HAS TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WERE SOME
SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE DID END UP ISSUING A
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UTICA POINT ON THE MOHAWK.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS HERKIMER COUNTY.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS NOT IMPACTING ANY OF OUR WATER SHEDS AT ALL ALLOWING FLOWS
TO QUICKLY RECEDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 170509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND THE
MIN TEMP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WIND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT TOTALLY GO CALM.
MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH A LOWERING SUBSTANCE
INVERSION...COULD MEAN THE RETURN OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...
COOLER THAN THE PAST NIGHTS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER DISTURBANCES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LOW...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SOAKING RAINFALL...WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THE NEXT TROUGH...WILL BE DIVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. RISING HEIGHTS OVER OUR IMMEDIATE REGION WILL BRING
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND A MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COULD REAP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. H850 TEMPERATURES WHILE COOLER THAN TODAY...WILL BE
AROUND +6C. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLUMN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 70 IN THE
VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 60 ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE
BE MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TO OCCUR MID
TO LATER NEXT WEEK. A VERY DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE JET EXPANDING ACROSS
A LARGE DOMAIN WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE FASTER SECTOR OF THE AGEOSTROPIC JET ACROSS CANADA DETACHES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MAIN FLOW...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS BUT AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO SHIFT WEST FURTHER WITH TIME. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY OF
THE POSITION OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT FROM MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERING AND SURFACE WIND AND
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED AT LEAST SOME FOG IN ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KPSF. AFTER 13Z ON FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT 8 KTS OR LESS...AND COULD GO CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL HAS TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WERE SOME
SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE DID END UP ISSUING A
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UTICA POINT ON THE MOHAWK.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS HERKIMER COUNTY.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS NOT IMPACTING ANY OF OUR WATER SHEDS AT ALL ALLOWING FLOWS
TO QUICKLY RECEDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 170509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS...A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT BRISK WINDS.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS THIS MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND THE
MIN TEMP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WIND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT TOTALLY GO CALM.
MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH A LOWERING SUBSTANCE
INVERSION...COULD MEAN THE RETURN OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...
COOLER THAN THE PAST NIGHTS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER DISTURBANCES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LOW...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SOAKING RAINFALL...WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THE NEXT TROUGH...WILL BE DIVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. RISING HEIGHTS OVER OUR IMMEDIATE REGION WILL BRING
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND A MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COULD REAP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. H850 TEMPERATURES WHILE COOLER THAN TODAY...WILL BE
AROUND +6C. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLUMN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 70 IN THE
VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 60 ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE
BE MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
(NAM/GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF). THE LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS FAR N
INTO QB...A STRONG SHORT WV ROUNDS ITS BASE INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND
THE FULL LATITUDE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
DRIVES A STRONG CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA. SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFNT...AND LINGER BEHIND IT AS LK EFFECT DYNAMICS...AND
ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS MVNG THROUGH THE TROF BASE...AND ANNA
FRONT DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONT -SHRA.  SAT NT THE SFC CDFNT WILL MV
OFFSHORE...AND THE 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION. SCT
-SHRA WILL END...AND MAY END AS -SHSN IN HIR TRRN OF W ADRDNKS AND
CATSKILLS.  A STRONG NW WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RGN
WITH 10-14 HPA ACROSS NYS SAT AFTN INTO SUN.

WITH THE 500HPA TROFS EXIT LATE SAT NT...SKIES WILL CLR BY
DAYBREAK SUN. SUN AND SUN NT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM THE OHIO
VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDS.

BRISKS WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO RGN WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S SAT NT...AND ONLY
REBOUND TO THE 40S SUN. SUN NT LOWS WILL FALL TO NR OR BLOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO END THE GROWING
SEASON IN AREAS FROM ALB S & E.

HWVR THE RGN WILL BE IN A FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND THE NEXT
500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE W
GRTLKS SUN NT AND MON. AHEAD OF THIS SYS WAA IN THE MID LVLS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE FCA TWRD DAYBREAK MON...WHICH WILL INCR
DURING THE DAY. OVER TIME MON ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORT WVS WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS MON NT. IN RESPONSE
A SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VLY...AND WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE
A LIGHT NE-SE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS RGN WITH SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING
MON NT.

AFTER BLO NORMAL TEMPS SAT NT INTO MON MRNG...TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING
AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TO OCCUR MID
TO LATER NEXT WEEK. A VERY DYNAMIC MID LATITUDE JET EXPANDING ACROSS
A LARGE DOMAIN WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS
THE FASTER SECTOR OF THE AGEOSTROPIC JET ACROSS CANADA DETACHES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MAIN FLOW...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS BUT AS MODEL RUNS PROGRESS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO SHIFT WEST FURTHER WITH TIME. OUR REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY OF
THE POSITION OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT FROM MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERING AND SURFACE WIND AND
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED AT LEAST SOME FOG IN ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KPSF. AFTER 13Z ON FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT 8 KTS OR LESS...AND COULD GO CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO AROUND 50 OR LESS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY.

THE 10-METER WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT FROM
MAINLY THE SOUTH. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH ON FRIDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAINLY MIDDAY...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS.

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE CLOUDS FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH...LESS SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH. IT WILL BE BLUSTER
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL HAS TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WERE SOME
SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE DID END UP ISSUING A
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UTICA POINT ON THE MOHAWK.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS HERKIMER COUNTY.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS NOT IMPACTING ANY OF OUR WATER SHEDS AT ALL ALLOWING FLOWS
TO QUICKLY RECEDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
OUR HSA EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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