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000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 020937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED AS ANY PATCHES OF MODERATE
SNOW WITHIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE ENDED...

SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 020937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED AS ANY PATCHES OF MODERATE
SNOW WITHIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE ENDED...

SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 955 PM EST...THE STEADIER SNOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
PATCHY IN AREAL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

THUS FAR...SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...GREATEST ACROSS
FAR SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH
MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADARS AND OVERALL SATELLITE TRENDS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM W TO E THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMTS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SHOULD THE DECREASING PRECIP TREND ON REGIONAL RADARS
CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 955 PM EST...THE STEADIER SNOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
PATCHY IN AREAL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

THUS FAR...SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...GREATEST ACROSS
FAR SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH
MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADARS AND OVERALL SATELLITE TRENDS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM W TO E THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMTS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SHOULD THE DECREASING PRECIP TREND ON REGIONAL RADARS
CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 011140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 640 AM EST...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND
CENTRAL PA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING
COULD RESULT IN DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT
VALLEY OF SE VT.

THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 640 AM EST...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND
CENTRAL PA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING
COULD RESULT IN DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT
VALLEY OF SE VT.

THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 010909
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 400 AM EST...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING ONCE AGAIN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER BELOW ZERO OR IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING
FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STARTING TO SLOWLY
WARM EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PA AND APPROACHING WESTERN NY.

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING COULD RESULT IN DELAYED
ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT VALLEY OF SE VT.

THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010909
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 400 AM EST...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING ONCE AGAIN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER BELOW ZERO OR IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING
FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STARTING TO SLOWLY
WARM EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PA AND APPROACHING WESTERN NY.

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING COULD RESULT IN DELAYED
ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT VALLEY OF SE VT.

THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 010909
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 400 AM EST...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING ONCE AGAIN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER BELOW ZERO OR IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING
FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STARTING TO SLOWLY
WARM EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PA AND APPROACHING WESTERN NY.

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING COULD RESULT IN DELAYED
ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT VALLEY OF SE VT.

THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS WINDS HAVE BECOME NEAR CALM. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING TOWARDS DAWN.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE
DEEPER MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN
ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS WINDS HAVE BECOME NEAR CALM. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING TOWARDS DAWN.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE
DEEPER MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN
ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS WINDS HAVE BECOME NEAR CALM. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING TOWARDS DAWN.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE
DEEPER MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN
ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SEEN
WITH THE LATEST CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SEEN
WITH THE LATEST CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SEEN
WITH THE LATEST CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SEEN
WITH THE LATEST CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 282357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 282357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 282357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING
FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPINGFROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 282058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING
FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPINGFROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING AT
18Z/SUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER
05Z/SUN. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN AT KPOU BY
15Z/SUN. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS THE COLUMN
WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...AND THE BETTER THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z/SUN IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD BASES IN
THE LATE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 3.5-4 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 5-8 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM PRIOR TO SUNSET. S/SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BTWN
11Z-15Z/SUN AT 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING US WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS AS
OF NOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING WILL ALLOW ONLY
HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS THE 2ND
COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281437
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM EST...A SFC ANTICYCLONE /1044 HPA/ CONTINUES TO
RIDGE IN OVER PA AND NY LATE THIS MORNING. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SFC
HIGH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING
WILL ALLOW ONLY HIGHS TO GET INTO THE TEENS AND L20S. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS
THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281437
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM EST...A SFC ANTICYCLONE /1044 HPA/ CONTINUES TO
RIDGE IN OVER PA AND NY LATE THIS MORNING. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SFC
HIGH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING
WILL ALLOW ONLY HIGHS TO GET INTO THE TEENS AND L20S. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS
THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281437
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM EST...A SFC ANTICYCLONE /1044 HPA/ CONTINUES TO
RIDGE IN OVER PA AND NY LATE THIS MORNING. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SFC
HIGH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING
WILL ALLOW ONLY HIGHS TO GET INTO THE TEENS AND L20S. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS
THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281437
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM EST...A SFC ANTICYCLONE /1044 HPA/ CONTINUES TO
RIDGE IN OVER PA AND NY LATE THIS MORNING. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SFC
HIGH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND AFTER A COLD START RISING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MIXING
WILL ALLOW ONLY HIGHS TO GET INTO THE TEENS AND L20S. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS
THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ALL-TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EST...A COLD START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
STILL IN PLACE...SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
12Z/SUN. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET AT KALB THIS
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME
OVERCAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING BACK TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 280904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE...SOME
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV





000
FXUS61 KALY 280904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY
BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CREST OVER OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE...SOME
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH ONLY
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280-285K
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
FLAT...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WITH
THE NAM AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY IN THE
0.20 TO 0.45 RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. DUE TO
A WSW WIND AROUND 850 MB...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

GIVEN FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY OVERLAP OF
THE BEST OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12 OR 13
TO 1. SO LATEST THINKING IS FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IT IS LIKELY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ISSUED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR STEADY SNOWFALL TO END FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S IN
THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LONG
WAVE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY RETROGRADE AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RESULTS IN ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS...SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. SOME SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN MANY AREAS BY DARK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND
BECOME STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.  THE
WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN QUESTION AND THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES SEEN IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.  STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE PRECIPITATION
SHADOWS/REDUCTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS IN LEE OF TERRAIN.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE SETS
UP...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS SEE SNOW AND SLEET...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN...AND WHAT
AREAS WILL SEE DEFINITIVE PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...BRIEFER PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN...AND LONGER PERIOD OF COLD RAIN.

OBVIOUSLY...ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF THE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL AND CLEAN UP
DIFFICULTIES THAN THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE A BRIFER PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HINTS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS IN
THE LONG RANGE ALL WINTER...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS. SPRING AND WARMER WEATHER HAVE TO ARRIVE AT SOME
POINT...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A MEANINGFUL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. YET.

SO...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANGE FROM MIX TO COLD RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT TRANSITION COULD BE
SLOW IN SOME AREAS DUE TO SNOW PACK AND VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND.
HIGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S...BUT AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MIGHT BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW SNOWPACK
AND FROZEN GROUND AFFECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION COULD SPREAD QUITE SLOWLY EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
IN SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THURSDAY BUT
TOO EARLY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO LINGER CHANCE OR BETTER
PROBABILITIES...BUT AGAIN... WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.  AT THIS
TIME INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...LOWER 20S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS FRIDAY WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS PERSIST. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
06Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS. KTYX RADAR EVEN SUGGESTS SOME FLURRIES MAY BE
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE WEST EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL FALL
BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




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