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000
FXUS61 KALY 282352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 282352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 282303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 282059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WERE GRAZING NORTHEAST WINDHAM CO VT. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WERE
NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE
ADIRONDACKS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING FROM THESE. SO...THROUGH SUNSET...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY LIMIT
HOW TALL THESE CLOUDS BUILD...AND MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
JUST SHOWERS AND WITHOUT LIGHTNING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST IN CASE.

AFTER ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN
ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING SHOWERS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 282059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WERE GRAZING NORTHEAST WINDHAM CO VT. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WERE
NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE
ADIRONDACKS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING FROM THESE. SO...THROUGH SUNSET...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY LIMIT
HOW TALL THESE CLOUDS BUILD...AND MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
JUST SHOWERS AND WITHOUT LIGHTNING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST IN CASE.

AFTER ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN
ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING SHOWERS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 281356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND A SUNNY SKY
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING ALOFT AND
DEEP DRY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATEED AROUND
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN VT...CLOSER TO SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND/OR EVOLVE. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 281356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND A SUNNY SKY
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING ALOFT AND
DEEP DRY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATEED AROUND
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN VT...CLOSER TO SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND/OR EVOLVE. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAD FORMED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. THESE SHOWERS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
WARREN AND EAST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND THEY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MID
MORNING. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST. LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX
HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAD FORMED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. THESE SHOWERS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
WARREN AND EAST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND THEY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MID
MORNING. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST. LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX
HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...ALL WAS QUIET ON OUR RADARS...NO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THERE WERE STILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AND THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH
A BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THAT VICINITY.

WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD MUGGY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S (80 AT ALBANY)
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME CASES 2-3
DEGREES...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE...AND WE DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN
THE COOLER VALLEYS...AND NEAR AREAS OF WATER.

OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 271418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTED...AND SKY CLEARING...FEW SPRINKELS GONE.
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THROUGH MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS...
NW CT THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GENERAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN MOST AREAS...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUN...AIDING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...AROUND 80 IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 271418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTED...AND SKY CLEARING...FEW SPRINKELS GONE.
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THROUGH MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS...
NW CT THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GENERAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN MOST AREAS...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUN...AIDING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...AROUND 80 IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z ALREADY SOME FOG AT KPSF...BRIEFLY DOWN TO 1/2SM. THIS
WILL BE THE TREND AND NOW WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IFR AT KPSF AND
KGFL. KPOU HAD SOME RAIN THIS EVENING SO THEY MIGHT GO DOWN AS
WELL...EXCEPT WE THINK MORE IN THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS PERHAPS LIMITING THE FOG THERE. KEPT MVFR FOG
THERE AS WELL AS KALB BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z ALREADY SOME FOG AT KPSF...BRIEFLY DOWN TO 1/2SM. THIS
WILL BE THE TREND AND NOW WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IFR AT KPSF AND
KGFL. KPOU HAD SOME RAIN THIS EVENING SO THEY MIGHT GO DOWN AS
WELL...EXCEPT WE THINK MORE IN THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS PERHAPS LIMITING THE FOG THERE. KEPT MVFR FOG
THERE AS WELL AS KALB BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS IF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB AND KPOU...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AT KGFL AND KPSF.

THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KPOU AND KPSF. WE KEPT A VCTS AT
KPOU UNTIL 01Z. AFTER THAT WHILE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF THERE.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKY
(FROM KPSF NORTH)ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...SHOULD HELP FORM FOG.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS WHICH MIGHT
MITIGATE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS/BR AT KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT LOOKS AS IF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB AND KPOU...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AT KGFL AND KPSF.

THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KPOU AND KPSF. WE KEPT A VCTS AT
KPOU UNTIL 01Z. AFTER THAT WHILE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF THERE.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKY
(FROM KPSF NORTH)ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...SHOULD HELP FORM FOG.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS WHICH MIGHT
MITIGATE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS/BR AT KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

IT LOOKS AS IF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB AND KPOU...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AT KGFL AND KPSF.

THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KPOU AND KPSF. WE KEPT A VCTS AT
KPOU UNTIL 01Z. AFTER THAT WHILE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF THERE.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKY
(FROM KPSF NORTH)ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...SHOULD HELP FORM FOG.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS WHICH MIGHT
MITIGATE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS/BR AT KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 270024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 815 PM EDT...IT HAD BEEN A TOUGH AFTERNOON WITH PURE PULSE
STORMS QUICKLY BUILDING AND FADING. A FEW BECAME BRIEFLY SEVERE.
THE STORMS FORMED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT
JUST RECENTLY ONE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PROBABLY
RIGHT ALONG A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THAT AREA.
THERE WERE STILL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FOR THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND OF CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS...BUT MIGHT HANG ON AWHILE LONGER TO THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FURTHER SOUTH...STRATUS MIGHT LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT WE LEFT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

IT LOOKS AS IF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERORIATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB AND KPOU...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AT KGFL AND KPSF.

THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KPOU AND KPSF. WE KEPT A VCTS AT
KPOU UNTIL 01Z. AFTER THAT WHILE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF THERE.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKY
(FROM KPSF NORTH)ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...SHOULD HELP FORM FOG.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS WHICH MIGHT
MITIGATE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS/BR AT KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT:  LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 261933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 330 PM EDT...A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE AVERAGING
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  WIND SHEAR DOES LACK WITH BULK VALUES WERE 20KTS
OR LESS SO NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...WITHIN DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS DOES EXIST AS THE SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF BOTH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

OVERNIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED AS IT SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MAY ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS AS WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WITH THE HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THE RESULT
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. WARMER AND MORE HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNGAS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 261933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 330 PM EDT...A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE AVERAGING
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  WIND SHEAR DOES LACK WITH BULK VALUES WERE 20KTS
OR LESS SO NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...WITHIN DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS DOES EXIST AS THE SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF BOTH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

OVERNIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED AS IT SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MAY ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS AS WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WITH THE HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THE RESULT
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. WARMER AND MORE HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C
TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNGAS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 261840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH ONE CELL NEAR THE 88D SITE. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
INTO ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER LAPS...SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG YET SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. PER THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP13...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES TO THE 20-50% POPS IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TIME.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNGAS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH ONE CELL NEAR THE 88D SITE. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
INTO ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER LAPS...SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG YET SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. PER THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP13...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES TO THE 20-50% POPS IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TIME.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNGAS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH ONE CELL NEAR THE 88D SITE. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
INTO ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER LAPS...SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG YET SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. PER THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP13...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES TO THE 20-50% POPS IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TIME.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH ONE CELL NEAR THE 88D SITE. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
INTO ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER LAPS...SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG YET SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. PER THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP13...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES TO THE 20-50% POPS IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TIME.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CIGS WERE SCT-BKN IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BUT ABOVE MVFR. AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THIS MAY IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE WET CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
NCEP BUFR PROFILES SIGNAL A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE WILL PLACE THIS WITHIN THE TAFS FOR KPSF-KGFL AND
MIFG FOR KALB-KPOU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY FOR THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 261646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY ALITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.


TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 261646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY ALITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.


TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 261646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY ALITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.


TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 261402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 261402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 261402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING A
BIT BEFORE NOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH
SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE DUAL POL STA PRODUCT SHOWS A HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
ULSTER CTY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. POPS
WERE READJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL
AND LIKELY VALUES MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
FOR A FEW HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING A
BIT BEFORE NOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH
SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE DUAL POL STA PRODUCT SHOWS A HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
ULSTER CTY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. POPS
WERE READJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL
AND LIKELY VALUES MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
FOR A FEW HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING A
BIT BEFORE NOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH
SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE DUAL POL STA PRODUCT SHOWS A HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
ULSTER CTY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. POPS
WERE READJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL
AND LIKELY VALUES MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
FOR A FEW HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 260856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CG LTG
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SHOWALTER INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A VCSH AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 260856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CG LTG
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SHOWALTER INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A VCSH AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 260856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CG LTG
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SHOWALTER INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A VCSH AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 260846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CG LTG
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OOCURRING WITH SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SHOWALTER INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNEDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 260846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CG LTG
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OOCURRING WITH SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST SHOWALTER INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S/SE ACROSS ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE...BUT WE CONCUR WITH THE LAST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC
KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY.

IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNEDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 260606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 260606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 260606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 260606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 260526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 260526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 260526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 260257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER ISOLATED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA
AND TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OFF THE ALY 00Z SOUNDING ARE
SUBDUED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE CAPE...WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR. EVEN SO...WITH TSRA ONGOING
UPSTREAM AND RAP SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SOME TSRA LIKELY.
SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR NIL GIVEN NOTED WEAK PARAMETERS.
ONCE AGAIN HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD SOME VALUE TO THE GRIDS BY USING
THE HRRR TO TIME PRECIP IN AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER ALSO REFRESHED
OBSERVATIONS TO BRING INTO AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT READINGS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90/.
IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND
SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TERRITORY FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW...NOT TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 260257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER ISOLATED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA
AND TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OFF THE ALY 00Z SOUNDING ARE
SUBDUED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE CAPE...WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR. EVEN SO...WITH TSRA ONGOING
UPSTREAM AND RAP SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SOME TSRA LIKELY.
SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR NIL GIVEN NOTED WEAK PARAMETERS.
ONCE AGAIN HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD SOME VALUE TO THE GRIDS BY USING
THE HRRR TO TIME PRECIP IN AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER ALSO REFRESHED
OBSERVATIONS TO BRING INTO AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT READINGS.

SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90/.
IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND
SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TERRITORY FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW...NOT TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.

TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.

ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.

WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.

IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.

FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.

WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949


JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA




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