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000
FXUS61 KALY 252022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
UNDER A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED
NICELY...WELL INTO THE 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S
FOR THE TERRAIN. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TUG HILL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET /OVER 150KTS/ DIVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE...EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST POINT TOWARD THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
FURTHERMORE...AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 0C...LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL LIKELY AID IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THUNDER POTENTIAL...EARLIER TODAY WE DID OBSERVE A
COUPLE OF CG/S JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWALTER VALUES AT
THAT TIME WERE BETWEEN POSITIVE 1-2C. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE DACKS REGION WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ORIENTATION.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AS THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS A TAD WARMER AS WE WILL BLEND MOS WITH
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE EXCELLENT PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE POTENT UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE
TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO/. H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK TO BELOW 0C WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHERMORE...WIND MAGNITUDES NEAR THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR
H875 SUGGEST WE WILL EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO 30KT WINDS. SO A RATHER
BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BRISK WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
40S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TO MIX IN ACROSS THE TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FURTHER INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BE RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 30S FOR THE REGION /NEAR 40F FOR ALONG THE HUDSON/MOHAWK
RIVER BASINS/.

MONDAY...MODERATING THERMAL COLUMNS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR SKY CONDITION
FURTHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MID HUDSON
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN THESE LOCATIONS...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY INTO THE 40S UNDER
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.  SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.  TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW.  HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET
ENERGY.

SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.  SOME
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.  HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH.

WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 251805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR UPSTREAM DOES REVEAL A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO.  IN FACT...RECENT
NLDN DETECTED ONE CG WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  PER HRRR AND CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS AND LEAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY
GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 251805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR UPSTREAM DOES REVEAL A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO.  IN FACT...RECENT
NLDN DETECTED ONE CG WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  PER HRRR AND CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS AND LEAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY
GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 251754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTY...NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HAMILTON AND
ALL OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS WESTERN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION A
PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS ANCHORED TO THE
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HILLS TO 50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

LATEST UPDATE HAS CLOUDS REMAINING THICKEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 50S FOR THE HILLS AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. DELAYED CHANCES FOR RAIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS MORE TOWARD 6-7 PM BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTY...NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HAMILTON AND
ALL OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS WESTERN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION A
PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS ANCHORED TO THE
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HILLS TO 50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

LATEST UPDATE HAS CLOUDS REMAINING THICKEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 50S FOR THE HILLS AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. DELAYED CHANCES FOR RAIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS MORE TOWARD 6-7 PM BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTY...NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HAMILTON AND
ALL OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS WESTERN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION A
PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS ANCHORED TO THE
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HILLS TO 50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

LATEST UPDATE HAS CLOUDS REMAINING THICKEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 50S FOR THE HILLS AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. DELAYED CHANCES FOR RAIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS MORE TOWARD 6-7 PM BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 250901
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 250837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 250559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
FOG. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR HAVE GONE CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS OF VISIBILITY BEING VARIABLE DUE TO THE FOG. ALREADY HAVE
IFR AND LOWER AT KGFL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...OTHERWISE MVFR
EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG BURNS OFF/LIFTS
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. SPEED OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM EDT TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 250144
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR EDITS TO AN OTHERWISE FINE
FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AWAY. A NORTHWEST
BREEZE WAS AVERAGING ABOUT ABOUT 5 MPH.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND A CLEARING
SKY. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV











000
FXUS61 KALY 242351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 242340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 241736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 241710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV












000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 230831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV













000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV










000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV










000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS













000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









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