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000
FXUS61 KALY 181500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. HOWEVER DO
HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FEET ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT AND BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY AROUND 5
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
PARTICULARLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. HOWEVER DO
HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FEET ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...KPOU. INDICATIONS ARE THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TONIGHT CLOUD
COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
PARTICULARLY AT KALB. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 181032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A
THICKENING VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CLOUDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY POOLING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THESE
MAY EVENTUALLY TRY TO DRIFT NORTH...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ERODE AS IT REACHES OUR REGION.

AFTER OUR CHILLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPOU WHERE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY BKN250 CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
OVC120 AND REMAIN SO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 180820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A THICKENING
VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH SEASONABLE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 180519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD
ONCE AGAIN...CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GENERALLY 25-30 IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON RIVER
AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 180510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 180233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 180014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
814 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...A THIN CANOPY OF CI/CS WAS ACROSS THE REGION
PER METARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS WILL THIN OUT FURTHER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO AN
OTHERWISE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 172029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF SITES AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 171732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF
SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY WEST CANADA CREEK AND AT
FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH ARE BOTH CURRENTLY HOLDING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON THE FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS WILL BE
DROPPED LATER TODAY. AS FOR RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER...IT IS
IN MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 171701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 171454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS REGION. THEY ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. UPDATED
WINDS WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHOULD THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 170952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR BUT COLD MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS TO THE NORTH MAINLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOWS WILL BOTTOM JUST ABOVE RECORD LEVELS IN MOST CASES.

JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 170847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...A FRIGID NIGHT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IT IS CALM
AND MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS NORTH. LOCALLY AT ALBANY
WE WERE SITTING AT 28...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE YET TO ECLIPSE THE
OLD LOW RECORD OF 21 SET BACK IN 1971.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 170517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS
21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM













000
FXUS61 KALY 170516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21
DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM











000
FXUS61 KALY 170515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 170145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM











000
FXUS61 KALY 162335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT..A STRONG NEAR 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH
IS 21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 162019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SNOWFALL HAS MELTED IN MOST EXPOSED AREAS THIS MORNING UNDER THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER
BEING RIGHT OVER OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD
LOW WHICH IS 21 THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER SOME RIVERS REACHING CREST SOMETIME
TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM









000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 161651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 160850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE LOWERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
MORE ANTICYLONIC.

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF
AREAS...UPPER 20S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LOWER 30S MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

INITIALLY MOST ASPHALT SURFACES REMAINED WET. HOWEVER...IN THE CASE
OF HEAVIER SNOW...THEY TOO BECAME SLUSH COVERED. ANY STANDING SLUSH
AND WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE SOLID. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING
DRIVE (800 AM).

WE WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES...TEENS
HIGHER TERRAIN.


WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER
CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGH
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS RECORD
BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 160728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY
WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE
MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE
MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES.

LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND











000
FXUS61 KALY 160554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND









000
FXUS61 KALY 160534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 160146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW. HAVE INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 160000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 152217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING NOW SO QUICK UPDATE FOR THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 152043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 152024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 151745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 151719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED IFR TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 20Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS FURTHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 151656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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