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000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 191035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 191035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE THE SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BERKS AND NW CT. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED RATHER MILD /EVEN KGFL WAS STILL AT 37F/. FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE DACKS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE MID 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE
BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF
SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 190743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE THE SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BERKS AND NW CT. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED RATHER MILD /EVEN KGFL WAS STILL AT 37F/. FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE DACKS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE MID 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE
BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF
SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 190535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...















000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...














000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 180808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS STAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 172312
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS...CURRENT
FORECAST NEED FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
DESCRIBES THE IMPORTANT FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

A FEW ISOLD- SCT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 172312
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS...CURRENT
FORECAST NEED FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
DESCRIBES THE IMPORTANT FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

A FEW ISOLD- SCT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 172028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. THE FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS MOVING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...
AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN
MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 172028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. THE FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS MOVING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...
AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN
MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/ALY STAFF









000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF











000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF












000
FXUS61 KALY 171726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF









000
FXUS61 KALY 171508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1108 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A
BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY


















000
FXUS61 KALY 171203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY















000
FXUS61 KALY 171203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
















000
FXUS61 KALY 171202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY















000
FXUS61 KALY 171202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY














000
FXUS61 KALY 171027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 171027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY












000
FXUS61 KALY 170753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
353 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PER LATEST HOURLY MSAS
AND RAP/HRRR EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG PER METARS AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 170753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
353 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PER LATEST HOURLY MSAS
AND RAP/HRRR EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG PER METARS AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
THE DAY.

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 170529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES REVEAL SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL NARROW EVEN FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
GOOD WITH NO ENHANCEMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 170529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES REVEAL SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL NARROW EVEN FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
GOOD WITH NO ENHANCEMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 170441
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES REVEAL SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL NARROW EVEN FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
GOOD WITH NO ENHANCEMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 170441
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES REVEAL SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL NARROW EVEN FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
GOOD WITH NO ENHANCEMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 170156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED WET/DAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 170156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED WET/DAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 162314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED WET/DAMP DUE TO
CLOUD COVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 162314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED WET/DAMP DUE TO
CLOUD COVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING
TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND
WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND
KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE
AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT
6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 162038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED
WET/DAMP DUE TO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 162038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED
WET/DAMP DUE TO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR.
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 161716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL...FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON HIGHS FOR THE DAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED SUNSHINE...LOOKING AT LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INDICATED ON RADAR...THESE TOO WILL DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








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