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000
FXUS61 KALY 010535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST...AND THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES
CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 010443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIR
WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAINSED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 010227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE EVEN
NOTED HERE AT NWS OFFICE. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPANDED POPS INTO MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO GRIDDED DATABASE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 312315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 312042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST FROM THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION SOUTH TO ALBANY AND INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER N
AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL









000
FXUS61 KALY 311729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE VERY SOON...THEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DESCRIBES
THE IMPORTANT FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND IS BELOW...

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...












000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS















000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS















000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 300559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT035. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 300125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 923 PM EDT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKING UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 292308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 292228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 292011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND END BY THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY/WESTERN PA.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE BOUNDARY ALREADY CROSSING...AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD STEADY
AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES UNDERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SHOWERS STILL GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST...BUT CLOUDY SKY
WELL BEHIND THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION SHOUDL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT BEFORE THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A
LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM















000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM















000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 445 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST
PA TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA












000
FXUS61 KALY 290601
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS CALM OR LIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S (MOSTLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS)...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE STILL
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP AND THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WRN LK ONT...WESTERN NY
AND NW PA. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA









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