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000
FXUS61 KALY 271415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
AS WELL.

NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE 500-1000 J/KG TODAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS TODAY
DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 271056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 271020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 271020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 271020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 271020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 270805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 270805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IN
FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT ACRS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT IS DISSIPATING. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO UPDATE TEMP TRENDS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT IS DISSIPATING. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO UPDATE TEMP TRENDS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME PATCHY MIST OR STRATUS MAY FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU. THE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP AND MAY PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR
FOG...AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 06Z-09Z
AT KGFL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND 07Z-10Z AT KPSF. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 09Z-14Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-
22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE S/SW AT 5 KTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR
TO NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT IS DISSIPATING. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO UPDATE TEMP TRENDS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT IS DISSIPATING. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO UPDATE TEMP TRENDS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270225
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT DISSIPATE. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY ADJUSTMENT ON TEMPERATURES IS TO BRING FORECAST IN LINE WITH
CURRENT READINGS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270225
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO/LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...BUT DISSIPATE. DID INCREASE CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT.

ONLY ADJUSTMENT ON TEMPERATURES IS TO BRING FORECAST IN LINE WITH
CURRENT READINGS.

MODELS /00ZNAM/LOCAL WRF/HRRR/ SHOW SOME SHRA ACTIVITY SNEAKING
INTO NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WITH RADARS QUIET NOW...WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...FOR TONIGHT.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 262347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WAS TO BRING FORECAST TEMPS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT READINGS. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ONTARIO HAS
WEAKENED. AT THIS POINT CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER LOOKS GOOD.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 262347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WAS TO BRING FORECAST TEMPS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT READINGS. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ONTARIO HAS
WEAKENED. AT THIS POINT CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER LOOKS GOOD.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 262330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH LATE TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 262330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH LATE TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 261950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH LATE TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG BTWN 06-13UTC COULD REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA MAINLY WEST COULD RESULT IN A MVFR CIG/CIG
WED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 261950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH LATE TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG BTWN 06-13UTC COULD REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA MAINLY WEST COULD RESULT IN A MVFR CIG/CIG
WED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 261729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1010AM EDT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND FCST AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.

500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

QUIET WX WILL CONT FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR. THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG BTWN 06-13UTC COULD REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA MAINLY WEST COULD RESULT IN A MVFR CIG/CIG
WED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 261729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1010AM EDT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND FCST AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.

500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

QUIET WX WILL CONT FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR. THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG BTWN 06-13UTC COULD REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA MAINLY WEST COULD RESULT IN A MVFR CIG/CIG
WED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 261427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1010AM EDT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND FCST AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.

500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

QUIET WX WILL CONT FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR. THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z AT KPSF AND
KGFL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 06Z/WED
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 261427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1010AM EDT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND FCST AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.

500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

QUIET WX WILL CONT FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR. THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z AT KPSF AND
KGFL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 06Z/WED
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 261046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IN SOME AREAS EXPECT A NEAR CARBON
COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST
OFF THE COAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY EXCEPT
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
CIRRUS MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
REMAIN BTWN +14C AND +16C. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. IN FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG
AND MAINLY ACRS THE SE PTN OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.  THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.  THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S
TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS.  LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z AT KPSF AND
KGFL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 06Z/WED
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 260925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IN SOME AREAS EXPECT A NEAR CARBON
COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST
OFF THE COAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY EXCEPT
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
CIRRUS MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
REMAIN BTWN +14C AND +16C. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. IN FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG
AND MAINLY ACRS THE SE PTN OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.  THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.  THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S
TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS.  LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND PA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THAN LAST
NIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG TO FORM AND IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-12Z. KALB AND KPOU MAY HAVE A
NARROW TIME FRAME FROM 09Z-12Z AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
ADDRESS MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY VSBYS.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 260925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IN SOME AREAS EXPECT A NEAR CARBON
COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST
OFF THE COAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY EXCEPT
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
CIRRUS MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
REMAIN BTWN +14C AND +16C. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. IN FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG
AND MAINLY ACRS THE SE PTN OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.  THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.  THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S
TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS.  LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND PA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THAN LAST
NIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG TO FORM AND IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-12Z. KALB AND KPOU MAY HAVE A
NARROW TIME FRAME FROM 09Z-12Z AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
ADDRESS MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY VSBYS.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 260749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. H8 TEMPS REMAIN
BTWN +14C AND +16C. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. IN FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG
AND MAINLY ACRS THE SE PTN OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.  THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.  THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S
TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS.  LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND PA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THAN LAST
NIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG TO FORM AND IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-12Z. KALB AND KPOU MAY HAVE A
NARROW TIME FRAME FROM 09Z-12Z AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
ADDRESS MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY VSBYS.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 260749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. H8 TEMPS REMAIN
BTWN +14C AND +16C. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. IN FACT MLMUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG
AND MAINLY ACRS THE SE PTN OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.  THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.  THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S
TO L70S OVER THE MTNS TO MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS.  LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS...OR THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/SFC THERMAL TROUGH.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM KEEPS MOST OF SATURDAY DRY.  THE GFS/ECMWF LEAN CLOSER
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  OUR FCST
WILL HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHC SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT OFF THE
GFS...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO L80S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

ON SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ZONAL WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDING S/SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH
RANGE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FCST AREA.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S TO L80S ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  IT
WILL BE A MUGGY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

LABOR DAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT STALLING
FROM NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO OPEN UP SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND PA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THAN LAST
NIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG TO FORM AND IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-12Z. KALB AND KPOU MAY HAVE A
NARROW TIME FRAME FROM 09Z-12Z AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
ADDRESS MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY VSBYS.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A
FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 260552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SKIES ARE CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME VERY SCT MID CLOUDS AND FROM THE
11U-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SOME FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND PA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THAN LAST
NIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG TO FORM AND IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-12Z. KALB AND KPOU MAY HAVE A
NARROW TIME FRAME FROM 09Z-12Z AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
ADDRESS MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY VSBYS.

THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE. A FEW-SCT CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS
00Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS FOR THE VERY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ONCE AGAIN BY 23Z TUE TO 00Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 260415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SKIES ARE CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME VERY SCT MID CLOUDS AND FROM THE
11U-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SOME FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 260415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SKIES ARE CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME VERY SCT MID CLOUDS AND FROM THE
11U-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SOME FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 260113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9150 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SKIES ARE CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME VERY SCT MID CLOUDS AND FROM THE
11U-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SOME FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 260113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9150 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SKIES ARE CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME VERY SCT MID CLOUDS AND FROM THE
11U-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SOME FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 252349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CU WILL DIMINISH WILL
END OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES MADE EXCEPT SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 252349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CU WILL DIMINISH WILL
END OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES MADE EXCEPT SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT IFR FOG TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE DETERMINING THE ONSET OF IFR
FOG CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL VARY BY TAF SITE. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z AT KGFL AS LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL HELP LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE QUICKER AND FOG TO FORM FIRST. SIMILAR TEMPO GROUP WAS
PLACED AT KPSF FROM 04Z-06Z FOR SAME REASONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO
OCCUR AT KALB AND KPOU BY 08Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY IFR FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE CALM.

TUESDAY...AFTER IFR FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE TAF SITES WITH SKC AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 252229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CU WILL DIMINISH WILL
END OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES MADE EXCEPT SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 252229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CU WILL DIMINISH WILL
END OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER.

FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AN NO CHANGES MADE EXCEPT SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 251954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO THIN OUT...AS THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE AXIS.

AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN CLEAR AND MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 251954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER UPSTATE NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO THIN OUT...AS THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE AXIS.

AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN CLEAR AND MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS OF AROUND +15 DEGREES C...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US AND
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM...SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING. WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
BRIEF.  MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON
WED NIGHT LOOK TO BE 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AND ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...HAVING IT EXIT BY LABOR DAY WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION. FOG WILL FORM IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 251738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS SOME OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
GREENS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...MAKING
IT FEELS A LITTLE MUGGIER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KALY 251738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS SOME OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
GREENS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...MAKING
IT FEELS A LITTLE MUGGIER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 251732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED FOR CURRENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS. FORECAST TEMPS UNCHANGED.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
/MOSTLY SUNNY/ WITH CI VS PREVIOUS /SUNNY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 251732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED FOR CURRENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS. FORECAST TEMPS UNCHANGED.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
/MOSTLY SUNNY/ WITH CI VS PREVIOUS /SUNNY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER ISSUE OF FOG
FORMATION IS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT.

APPLYING CLIMATOLOGY AND LAST NIGHT/S EXPERIENCE...WILL HAVE KGFL
AND KPSF FALLING TO IFR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE KPOU AND KALB ABOVE
IFR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED FOR CURRENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS. FORECAST TEMPS UNCHANGED.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
/MOSTLY SUNNY/ WITH CI VS PREVIOUS /SUNNY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z AT THE
TAF SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER 05Z/TUE. SOME
MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z/TUE.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA/OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 251444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED FOR CURRENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS. FORECAST TEMPS UNCHANGED.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
/MOSTLY SUNNY/ WITH CI VS PREVIOUS /SUNNY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z AT THE
TAF SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER 05Z/TUE. SOME
MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z/TUE.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA/OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH JUST A
FEW AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY...SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS AS OF 6 AM
WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACRS THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FA TODAY PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AREAS OF FOG LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO
BTWN +14C TO +16C. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z AT THE
TAF SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER 05Z/TUE. SOME
MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z/TUE.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH JUST A
FEW AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY...SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS AS OF 6 AM
WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACRS THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FA TODAY PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AREAS OF FOG LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO
BTWN +14C TO +16C. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z AT THE
TAF SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER 05Z/TUE. SOME
MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z/TUE.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 251022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH JUST A
FEW AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY...SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS AS OF 6 AM
WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACRS THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FA TODAY PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AREAS OF FOG LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO
BTWN +14C TO +16C. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB BTWN 10Z-12Z.
THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...VERY FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 OR 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM
ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 251022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH JUST A
FEW AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY...SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS AS OF 6 AM
WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 40S ACRS THE
SRN ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FA TODAY PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AREAS OF FOG LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO
BTWN +14C TO +16C. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB BTWN 10Z-12Z.
THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...VERY FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 OR 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM
ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FA TODAY PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AREAS OF FOG LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO
BTWN +14C TO +16C. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY...WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST JUST OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION.
IT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT
ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
WILL FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...BUT THE LABOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AT
THIS POINT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AND DRY CONDITIONS.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO
+7C TO +10C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.  EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SOME U70S ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA THU NIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS MAYBE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH U60S TO
U70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERHAPS THE SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE THERMAL ADVECTION PCPN IN MUCH
EARLIER...AND THE CANADIAN GGEM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE HAVING THE BEST
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  OUR
FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AND/OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER TO M60S.  LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO M50S...AND
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH MID
AND U70S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A SFC COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
GGEM/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TO CLOSE OUT
THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE U60S TO U70S.  IF THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRY FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
BERKSHIRES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/WPC GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WET AND UNSETTLED WX LABOR DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB BTWN 10Z-12Z.
THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...VERY FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 OR 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM
ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...SKIES ARE CLR ACRS THE FA. FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY QUESTION IS TIMING OF FOG FORMATION AND EXTENT. OTRW
AT 500HPA A MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE USA...AS SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES...NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB BTWN 10Z-12Z.
THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...VERY FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 OR 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM
ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 250558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...SKIES ARE CLR ACRS THE FA. FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY QUESTION IS TIMING OF FOG FORMATION AND EXTENT. OTRW
AT 500HPA A MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE USA...AS SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES...NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS RADIATIONAL MIST AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES IN E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MIST IS POSSIBLE AT KALB BTWN 10Z-12Z.
THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...VERY FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 OR 4 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CALM
ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 250416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...SKIES ARE CLR ACRS THE FA. FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY QUESTION IS TIMING OF FOG FORMATION AND EXTENT. OTRW
AT 500HPA A MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE USA...AS SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES...NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
INTO TUES. VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN GROUND FOG OVRNT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13UTC MON.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VRBL MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 250416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...SKIES ARE CLR ACRS THE FA. FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY QUESTION IS TIMING OF FOG FORMATION AND EXTENT. OTRW
AT 500HPA A MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE USA...AS SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES...NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
INTO TUES. VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN GROUND FOG OVRNT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13UTC MON.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VRBL MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 250124
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL
BE THE RULE.  ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925PM EDT...SKIES ARE CLR ACRS FCA. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
QUESTION IS TIMING OF FOG FORMATION AND EXTENT. OTRW AT 500HPA A
MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE USA...AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE 60S
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES...NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HI
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
INTO TUES. VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN GROUND FOG OVRNT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13UTC MON.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VRBL MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 242247
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH WILL
BE THE RULE.  ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645PM EDT...SKIES HV CLEARED IN MOST OF THE FCA EXCPT FOR
SOME SCT MID CLOUDS S & W OF ALB...WHICH WILL BE GONE BY 9PM.

OTRW HIGH AT 500HPA A MASSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE
USA...AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE THE NORTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH GROUND FOG
FORMING UNDER CLR SKIES..NO WINDS...11 HOURS OF NIGHT...AND HI
PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS. BUT DUE TO A DRIER BNDRY LAYER THE FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE OR FORM AS EARLY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
INTO TUES. VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN GROUND FOG OVRNT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13UTC MON.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VRBL MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 242104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...PLENTY OF BROKEN CU WERE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE...BUT WITH LOW TOPS...NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON
RADAR NOR SHOULD THEY BE THE REST OF THE DAY THANKS TO A STRONG CAP
(MID LEVEL WARMTH)...PREVENTING THE CU FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH TO
REAP ANY SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 80. DEWPOINTS WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60...SO MODERATE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. THE DIURNAL CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE 70S AND THE NORTH WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR (THERE COULD BE A FEW CIRRUS PATCHES
AROUND) AND LATER PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

GROUND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOSE. SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS
(VISIBLITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE). FOR NOW...DECIDED TO JUST CALL IT
PATCHY FOG AND LET THE EVENING CREW UPDATE LATER ON IF NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY -
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/SND/GJM














000
FXUS61 KALY 242104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...PLENTY OF BROKEN CU WERE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE...BUT WITH LOW TOPS...NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON
RADAR NOR SHOULD THEY BE THE REST OF THE DAY THANKS TO A STRONG CAP
(MID LEVEL WARMTH)...PREVENTING THE CU FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH TO
REAP ANY SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 80. DEWPOINTS WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60...SO MODERATE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. THE DIURNAL CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE 70S AND THE NORTH WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR (THERE COULD BE A FEW CIRRUS PATCHES
AROUND) AND LATER PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

GROUND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOSE. SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS
(VISIBLITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE). FOR NOW...DECIDED TO JUST CALL IT
PATCHY FOG AND LET THE EVENING CREW UPDATE LATER ON IF NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

FOR ALL LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL (OR
ANY OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS) PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANCE
CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY -
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/SND/GJM













000
FXUS61 KALY 242041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...PLENTY OF BROKEN CU WERE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE...BUT WITH LOW TOPS...NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON
RADAR NOR SHOULD THEY BE THE REST OF THE DAY THANKS TO A STRONG CAP
(MID LEVEL WARMTH)...PREVENTING THE CU FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH TO
REAP ANY SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 80. DEWPOINTS WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60...SO MODERATE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. THE DIURNAL CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE 70S AND THE NORTH WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR (THERE COULD BE A FEW CIRRUS PATCHES
AROUND) AND LATER PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

GROUND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOSE. SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS
(VISIBLITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE). FOR NOW...DECIDED TO JUST CALL IT
PATCHY FOG AND LET THE EVENING CREW UPDATE LATER ON IF NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY -
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/SND/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 242041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING WARMTH. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAYBE BRINGING A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...PLENTY OF BROKEN CU WERE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE...BUT WITH LOW TOPS...NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON
RADAR NOR SHOULD THEY BE THE REST OF THE DAY THANKS TO A STRONG CAP
(MID LEVEL WARMTH)...PREVENTING THE CU FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH TO
REAP ANY SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 80. DEWPOINTS WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60...SO MODERATE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. THE DIURNAL CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE 70S AND THE NORTH WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR (THERE COULD BE A FEW CIRRUS PATCHES
AROUND) AND LATER PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

GROUND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOSE. SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS
(VISIBLITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE). FOR NOW...DECIDED TO JUST CALL IT
PATCHY FOG AND LET THE EVENING CREW UPDATE LATER ON IF NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM ABOUT +14C ON MONDAY TO ABOUT +16C TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 60...SO IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST MAINLY AROUND 5 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE MORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55-60.

TUESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT BRING IN SOME STRATUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 60-65.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL WORK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AIR ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN RATHER WARM...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION (AS THE AIR
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNSTABLE). ALSO...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
FORCING WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A BREEZE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...TURNING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL (WHICH MIGHT BECOME A HURRICANE)...WILL HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...AS A DIGGING BROAD TROUGH SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

INSTEAD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OF CANADIAN AIR. H850
TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT +5C BY LATE THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEE LOWS DOWN TO AROUND 60. AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 70S ACROSS
REGION...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID 70S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONLY
UPPER 60S MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT BE WILL CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 50 IN MOST PLACES...BUT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN OUTLYING AREAS
INCLUDING AROUND LAKE GEORGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CREST
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE...A BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

BY SATURDAY...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MIGHT BRING
SOME SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 75-80.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT MIGHT STALL OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE 75-80...ASSUMING WE ACTUALLY GET SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY -
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100
PERCENT...PLENTY OF DEW AND EVEN SOME FOG.

EACH DAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL DROP
TO MODERATE LEVELS...40-50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
LIGHT TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT OVERALL AVERAGE
RAINFALL WILL BE WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

COOLER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY   ...BUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/SND/GJM










000
FXUS61 KALY 241741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING WARM AND
DRY SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...ALL STRATUS HAS BURN OFF. INSTEAD LOW TOPPED CU
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS...MOST EXTENSIVE IN THE
CATSKILLS.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CAP (AREA OF WARM AIR
ALOFT) AROUND 10,000 FEET. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CU TO GROW MUCH TALL
THAN THIS...AND THEREFORE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SPAWN ANY SHOWERS OR
CERTAINLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

LOOKS TO US AS IF THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN
THE VALLEYS...SO WENT SUNNY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE
HILLS...THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CU SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THERE.
SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE ALY RAOB PRETTY
MUCH SUPPORTED THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY 5-10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND THE MAINLY
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THE ONLY
WEATHER PROBLEM. TEMPS WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUE NT-WED NT...00Z/24 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CROSSING SE
CANADA...AND AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED OR WED NT. HAVE
THEREFORE INTRODUCED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY
FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVE. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER APPROACH OF THE
FRONT...AND A HIGHER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION...TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE REACHING 85-90 IN
VALLEYS FROM ALBANY S AND E...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 50S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WED NT/EARLY THU AM.

THU-SAT...ASSUMING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT LESS FOR THU...AND MAY REMAIN LIMITED
TO NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU-THU
NT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT MAY
BRING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRI
INTO SAT. HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR FRI...THEN INCREASED TO
CHC FOR FRI NT-SAT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THU...WITH MAINLY 70S EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FOR
FRI-SAT...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THERE ARE LESS
CLOUDS/SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS FOR FRI AND SAT AM...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FRI AM...AND SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND WIDESPREAD DEW WILL FORM
AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AN VARIABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING WARM AND
DRY SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...ALL STRATUS HAS BURN OFF. INSTEAD LOW TOPPED CU
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS...MOST EXTENSIVE IN THE
CATSKILLS.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CAP (AREA OF WARM AIR
ALOFT) AROUND 10,000 FEET. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CU TO GROW MUCH TALL
THAN THIS...AND THEREFORE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SPAWN ANY SHOWERS OR
CERTAINLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

LOOKS TO US AS IF THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN
THE VALLEYS...SO WENT SUNNY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE
HILLS...THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CU SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THERE.
SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE ALY RAOB PRETTY
MUCH SUPPORTED THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY 5-10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND THE MAINLY
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG THE ONLY
WEATHER PROBLEM. TEMPS WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUE NT-WED NT...00Z/24 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CROSSING SE
CANADA...AND AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED OR WED NT. HAVE
THEREFORE INTRODUCED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY
FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVE. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER APPROACH OF THE
FRONT...AND A HIGHER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION...TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE REACHING 85-90 IN
VALLEYS FROM ALBANY S AND E...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 50S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WED NT/EARLY THU AM.

THU-SAT...ASSUMING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT LESS FOR THU...AND MAY REMAIN LIMITED
TO NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU-THU
NT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT MAY
BRING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRI
INTO SAT. HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR FRI...THEN INCREASED TO
CHC FOR FRI NT-SAT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THU...WITH MAINLY 70S EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FOR
FRI-SAT...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THERE ARE LESS
CLOUDS/SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS FOR FRI AND SAT AM...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FRI AM...AND SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
DECK BETWEEN 040-100 FEET MSL.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MORE GROUND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREDOMINATE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER AT KALB AND KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z/MON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND WIDESPREAD DEW WILL FORM
AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AN VARIABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM









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