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000
FXUS61 KALY 290514
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
114 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...A backdoor cold front was located just to our
north and east across northern New York and central New England.
The ridge of high pressure that has been over the region the last
several days will begin to weaken overnight with only subtle
height falls. With the loss of daytime heating, any isolated
convection that was able to develop during the day has dissipated
and no precipitation is expected through the overnight hours.

It will be a muggy night with lows only falling back into the
60s. The dew points will not be much lower than the temperatures
and with light/variable to calm winds some fog will form
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will weaken with heights occurring Sunday into
Monday as short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes region
and eastern Canada. By Monday evening the flow aloft will be
nearly zonal over the region.

At the surface, a stalled boundary to our north with move southward
as a backdoor front as the heights fall aloft and will provide
focus for convection to develop Sunday. Do not have confidence on
how far south the boundary will make it before lifting back
northward as a warm front Sunday night into Monday and some tropical
moisture from will be drawn northward into the region. Precipitable
water values south and east of the Capital District are forecast
to rise and approach 2 inches. This along with the approach of the
low pressure system`s cold front as the main low passes well to
our north across Quebec showers will be numerous along with
chances for thunderstorms. The better chances for showers with
heavy downpours will be south and east of the Capital District
late Sunday night onto Monday morning. Have locally heavy
rainfall possible in the forecast.

The Storm Prediction have the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook Sunday with an enhanced outlook for Monday with the more
organized forcing.

Sunday will be very warm/hot and humid again however temperatures
are expected to not be as high as today. The record high at Glens
Falls may be challenge, however are expected to fall short for
Albany and Poughkeepsie. Refer to the climate section details
Lower but still above normal temperatures are expected Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A tranquil first half to the extended forecast period will then
transition to a more active second half of the forecast period.
Temperatures will start above average and then cool down to near
average temperatures by the time we go toward the first half of next
weekend.

A upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the region
Tuesday night with a surface high pressure working south out of
Canada. The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
amplify poleward and shift eastward as we go toward Thursday night
out ahead of our main weather system for the extended period. With a
light southerly flow and mostly clear skies under the ridge of high
pressure, temperatures are expected to be slightly above average as
we go through the middle of next week.

As we go toward the day on Friday, a cold front will slowly makes
its way east across western New York. Out ahead of the cold front,
some showers are likely as the latest 28/12z model and probabilistic
guidance shows the highest chances of precipitation Friday night
into the day on Saturday. High temperatures for Friday into the
first half of the weekend will cool down closer to average for early
June.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through Sunday daybreak, patchy ground fog is expected to develop
at KGFL and KPSF, with occasional MVFR/IFR visibilities.
Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions are expected.

After Sunday daybreak, as an upper level trough begins to
approach, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop by
Sunday afternoon, mainly for KALB/KPSF/KGFL. This could cause
brief reductions in flying conditions, otherwise it looks to
remain VFR with sct-bkn clouds at 5-10 kft.

For Sunday evening, areas of MVFR visibilities will be possible at
TAF sites which receive afternoon showers. Also, additional
showers may be ongoing at KGFL/KALB. Some IFR visibilities could
occur toward and especially after 06Z/Monday, especially at KGFL.

Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, except
south at 5-10 KT at KALB. Winds will become south and increase to
5 to 10 kts by Sunday afternoon, and could gust into the 15-20 KT
range, especially at KALB. South to southeast winds should
decrease to less than 10 KT after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high in place will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a
low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing
showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night.

Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder
of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are
expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal
as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy
downpours would be expected some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy
downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
particular to the south and east of the Capital District.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as
high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the
week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs were broken today

Albany NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 93 degrees. Old record
was 91 degrees 1911.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 89 degrees. Old record
was 88 degrees 1988.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 94 degrees. Old record
was 90 degrees 2012.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 281731
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Record broken at Poughkeepsie with a temperature of 91 degrees at
107 pm EDT. Records have been tied at Glens Falls with a
temperature of 88 degrees at 109 pm EDT and at Albany with a
tenmperature of 91 degrees at 125 pm. Refer to climate section for
details.

Hot and humid with mostly to partly sunny skies across the area.
Cumulus clouds developed mainly across the higher terrain. Only
some adjustments were made to today`s forecast. Area 12z
soundings show relatively warm aloft and convection this afternoon
and evening should be isolated without an organized low level
focus. A weak cold front to the north slowly sinking south is
quite diffuse, so again, mainly isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and with such high wet bulb zero levels, any hail
would be small if any and any threat for damaging winds is minimal
as well. HRRR developed convection to earlier again today and will
likely have coverage overdone. It does indicate storms are more
likely across the southern portion of the area. As of early this
afternoon isolated convection has developed across western new
york and the eastern 2/3 of PA. Continues to isolated pops across
the forecast area with 3-4 hour period of low chance pops across
the central/southeastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and across
northwestern Connecticut into the southern Berkshires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The convective activity will die down again this evening with
mainly dry conditions overnight. It will continue to be warm and
muggy with lows only dropping into the 60s tonight.

Sunday and Sunday night look to be the most active period of the
weekend as the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the day with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon as MLMUCAPES rise to 1500-2500
J/KG. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southwest in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont as a cold front pushes
east from the central Great Lakes late in the day on Sunday and
into western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late Sunday
night. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms
going into Sunday night. Have added enhanced wording for heavy
rainfall as PWATS rise to 1.5 to 2 inches late Sunday and Sunday
night with Atlantic moisture being drawn northward into our region Highs
on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows Sunday
night in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries
are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active
than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east on the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to
500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any
lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather
expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast should feature dry
conditions...with above normal temperatures for late May/early June.

On Tuesday, have included mention of isolated showers across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, as a secondary
cold front and upper level trough move across. Elsewhere...expect
dry conditions at this time.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, high pressure should build
across the region from eastern Canada, before sliding off the New
England coast. Expect generally clear/sunny skies.

For late Thursday into Friday, a frontal system will approach from
the Great Lakes region. The low level pressure gradient may tighten
between the lowering pressures to our west, and the strong high off
the New England coast, allowing for somewhat gusty south/southeast
winds. Moisture advecting northward ahead of the front could bring
clouds and spotty showers for Thursday night, with a better chance
of showers Friday as the front approaches from the west.

Temperatures through this period should remain warmer than normal,
with highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s, except warmer across
the mid Hudson Valley. Overnight low temperatures should be mainly
in the 50s, although some 40s will be possible across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of the
TAF sites. Have not included any mention of showers/thunderstorms in
TAFs at this time.

For tonight, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward and
especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF. Some IFR
could occur, especially between 07Z-10Z/Sunday. Conditions improve
to VFR by 13Z Sunday.

Light/variable winds should become southwest to west at 5-10 KT
through this afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once
again this evening and overnight. Winds become south at around 5 kt
Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 35 to 55 percent
this afternoon...recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight...and drop
to 50 to 70 percent on Sunday.

Winds are expected to be southwest to west at 5 mph today...light
and variable tonight...and south at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 28th...91 degrees 1911 - Record tied at 125 pm.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...88 degrees 1988 - Record tied at 109 pm.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...90 degrees 2012 - Record broken with a temperature of
91 degrees at 107 pm.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 280511
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...A stationary frontal boundary lay draped
across eastern New England while a weak trough of low pressure was
across central New York. Most of the shower activity has ended
leaving the forecast area with a very mild and muggy night with
some patchy fog/haze possible overnight. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 60s for much of the area.

The upper level ridge axis is forecast to strengthen further,
which will tend to inhibit convection potential. Strong heating
and increasing low level moisture will still result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating from late
morning into the afternoon hours. Again will only mention 20-30
pops with limited coverage across the area, with the somewhat
better chances north and south of I-90 and the Capital District,
where terrain may the main factor in generating convection. The
main story Saturday will be very warm temperatures likely
exceeding daily records at climate sites Albany, Poughkeepsie, and
Glens Falls. See climate section below for details. Most valley
locations are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. It
will feel muggy as well, with dewpoints well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Once again, any convection will dissipate shortly after dark
Saturday evening, as it will be diurnally driven under the
influence of the upper level ridge. It will be another mild night
with temps well above normal.

Similar conditions forecast for Sunday, as the upper level ridge
remains in place. However, there may be somewhat greater coverage
of convection due to the ridge axis eastward into New England by
late in the day. The low level focus for potentially more showers
and storms will be a side-door cold front moving southward along
the New England coast. This boundary is not expected to make
enough southward progress to infiltrate our area, but may provide
enough lift for scattered convection by the afternoon. Temps will
remain quite warm, but maybe a few degrees lower than Saturday due
to greater coverage of clouds/convection. Humid conditions will
persist with dewpoints remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and storms will actually continue Sunday
night into early Monday morning, as an open wave upper level
trough will approach from the Great Lakes region, providing some
larger scale ascent with the warm and humid air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A we go into the day on Monday, consensus between the latest 12z
models does show moisture from the southwest Atlantic advecting
northward into the region thanks to a High pressure system
centered northeast of Bermuda. PWAT anomalies in some of the
probabilistic guidance range between 2 to near 3 S.D. Best chances
of precipitation will be during the day on Monday with highest QPF
amounts in our southeastern areas. We will continue to monitor the
latest trends with this tropical moisture and update the forecast
accordingly. With an established southwesterly flow with tropical
moisture moving poleward, high temperatures on Monday will be
slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s with
Td ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, so it will be quite
humid on Monday. We can also not rule out some thunderstorms to
start the extended period on Monday.

Some of the latest guidance has some showers lingering into
Tuesday morning as a cold front makes it way through the region.
Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected to remain throughout most
of the long term forecast period as a high pressure system remains
in control from tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will
remain above average. As we go into the day on Friday, our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms return into the region with
temperatures near average for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Through Saturday daybreak, areas of MVFR/IFR in BR/FG may
develop, especially at KPOU and KPSF, where some showers occurred
or were nearby Friday afternoon/evening. The chances for BR/FG
will be least at KALB.

After Saturday daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of
the TAF sites. Have not included any mention of
showers/thunderstorms in TAFs at this time.

For Saturday night, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward
and especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF.

Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, then should
become southwest to west at 5-10 KT later Saturday morning through
Saturday afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once again
Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 40 to 50
percent Saturday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 85
and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 mph, becoming southwest
around 5 mph on Saturday. Winds Saturday night will be light and
variable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday and Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 27th...94 degrees 1914
May 28th...91 degrees 1911
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978
May 28th...88 degrees 1988
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 27th...91 degrees 1965
May 28th...90 degrees 2012
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 262340
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions are forecast through Memorial Day
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Memorial Day may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT...Upstream showers continue to weaken as
downstream environment remains relatively dry. We will keep CHC-
SCT pops through the evening until the upstream showers diminish
further as the latest HRRR points toward the chance of some of
these showers may cross the region later this evening. Otherwise,
variable to mostly cloudy skies will continue with some haze on
the increase late tonight.

Prev disc...Summer has arrived. hazy, hot and humid conditions
abound across the Albany Forecast Area. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the southern Adirondacks and
extend southwest into central and western New York. Storms are
moving from WSW to ENE at 20 MPH or less. Radar has estimated
a max local rainfall estimate of 1-2 inches from a storm moving
through Warren County. Temperature hit 90F at Poughkeepsie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft is forecast to strengthen over
the region through Saturday. Warm, moist air will continue to flow
into the region from the Ohio Valley. The strengthening ridge
aloft will provide general subsidence and fair weather. With
increasing low level moisture, the threat of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase although they should remain isolated
to scattered due to the lack of a coherent focusing mechanism.
Basically, summer-like weather expected, with hazy, hot and humid
conditions. Lows through the period in the 50s and 60s withs highs
in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge remaining
anchored over the region extending from the western Atlantic
northwestward into the northeast CONUS. Models still indicating
convection initiating during the late morning/early afternoon,
generally due to a moist and unstable air mass in place with little
discernible forcing. Will mention scattered thunderstorms across the
region, but not everyone will see storms. Thunderstorms should
remain below severe levels with weak shear under the ridge, although
will have to watch for how much CAPE can develop. Some stronger
storms with brief gusty winds, downpours, and frequent lightning
will be possible. It will be another very warm and humid day, with
highs well into the 80s for most of the area.

Despite loss of daytime heating, will continue to mention chance
pops for showers/t-storms Sunday night as the upper level ridge
starts to flatten out as a trough approaches from the Great Lakes.
Monday looks to be the day with the best chance of more widespread
showers/t-storms, as the upper trough and its associated cold front
cross the region. The cold front and associated convection should
clear the area sometime during the evening.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday, with slightly cooler and
less humid conditions. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out
with a weak trough moving through. Tuesday night through Thursday
looks to be a dry and less humid period with high pressure centered
in Quebec providing a cooler and drier northerly flow. The ECMWF and
GFS indicating a possible tropical system that may affect the
Carolinas to remain well south of our region through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected, however, if a shower were to
move across a TAF location, a period of MVFR is possible later
tonight to around sunrise Friday. The showers seen upstream
continue to struggle with latest trends toward the weakening
stage. Latest HRRR forecasts support the outside chance of a
shower to impact the region this evening so we will keep the VCSH
at this time.

Winds are variable in direction across the area and overall light.
The winds will diminish further this evening. A light southerly
flow will develop Friday.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid weather and continued chances for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH
values will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next
several afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

Expect daytime winds from the southeast to southwest at 5 to 15
MPH. Winds at night will diminish to 2 to 7 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next week is expected to be highly
variable as much of it will come from thunderstorms. NWS WPC
forecasts between one half inch and two inches of rain during the
next week, with the highest amounts over the southern Adirondacks
and the least over litchfield County, CT. Widespread river
flooding is not expected, but localized urban or poor drainage
flooding is possible where heavier downpours from thunderstorms
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND

www.weather.gov/albany





000
FXUS61 KALY 261025
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 530 AM a few patchy clouds associated with a very weak
frontal passage, were moving through the forecast area.

Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.

It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.

By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.

It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.

By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.

Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.

Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.

Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.

Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period ending at
12Z Friday.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through
tonight.

A weak boundary working southward will begin lifting northward
later on today. By that time, it will have more moisture and
possible short wave to work with, so shower threats will increase
with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into the evening.
For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and kept flying
conditions at VFR through tonight.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours...before
becoming light and variable this evening.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.

The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.

Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.


PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.

Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula





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