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000
FXUS61 KALY 021027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT.
IN ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 021027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT.
IN ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
THESE WILL MOVE WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN
MANY LOCATIONS SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE BASED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND THESE WILL MOVE
WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS SOME
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WHERE
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOG WILL BURN OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
THESE WILL MOVE WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN
MANY LOCATIONS SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE BASED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND THESE WILL MOVE
WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS SOME
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WHERE
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOG WILL BURN OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 020023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
THESE WILL MOVE WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN
MANY LOCATIONS SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE BASED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND THESE WILL MOVE
WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS SOME
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WHERE
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOG WILL BURN OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
THESE WILL MOVE WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN
MANY LOCATIONS SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE BASED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND THESE WILL MOVE
WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS SOME
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF WHERE
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOG WILL BURN OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 012052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 012052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 012020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 012020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 011920
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
WORKING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY ABOUT TO REACH THE CAPITAL
REGION. THESE WERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION.

THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE OF THE STORMS WAS MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT WORKED THROUGH
JOHNSTOWN KNOCKING A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN THAT TOWN.

DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 80-85 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND FRONT WORK
THROUGH...MID TO UPPER 70S MOST OTHER PLACES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 291740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE MIXING WITH
CLOUDS IN THE ALY FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SRN GREENS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO POP UP AS THE COLD POOL WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S/SE QUEBEC MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL
AS A WEAK VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR LESS COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE PM. SOME W/NW WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/GLENS FALLS AREA/MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SO HAVE INCREASED MAXES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWER TO
M70S IN THESE AREAS. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
WITH SOME U50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOME HUDSON VALLEY AREAS TO NW CT COULD SEE
SOME INTERVALS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SO...BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...KEEPING THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
MANY AREAS...BUT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SOME
AREAS...AND MORE BREAKS IN OTHER AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWWER TO MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOME HUDSON VALLEY AREAS TO NW CT COULD SEE
SOME INTERVALS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SO...BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...KEEPING THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
MANY AREAS...BUT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SOME
AREAS...AND MORE BREAKS IN OTHER AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWWER TO MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME RIDGING IS INDUCED OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
LOOKING AT A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
FA IS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE HWO FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE POSSIBLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY JULY 4TH.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME...AS THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTING AREAL COVERAGE
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING...ALONG WITH DECREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT REACHES...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 ECMWF. THIS SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL WAVE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND/OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST IN VALLEYS...AND THU NT/FRI AM
MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN LOWERED INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ON SAT COULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MAXES NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS...IN CASE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
MAINLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ON SUN...HAVE INDICATED
MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-
80 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KPSF AND JUST
PAST KGFL. AREAS OF IFR CIGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN ITS WAKE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON AT KGFL AND
KPSF...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KALB AND KPOU.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER 06Z/TUE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH
TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11





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