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000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 260923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 260902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE HIGH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM





000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1035 PM EDT...STILL OVER REAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL LIKELY FORCE THIS
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-90.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
90...WHERE CLOUDS WHERE THE THINNEST.

SO IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GO UP A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BOTH OF WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF COOLING DOWN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RE-TOOLED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...CLOSER TO 50 IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN MOST CASES.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 250235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1035 PM EDT...STILL OVER REAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL LIKELY FORCE THIS
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-90.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
90...WHERE CLOUDS WHERE THE THINNEST.

SO IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GO UP A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BOTH OF WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF COOLING DOWN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RE-TOOLED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...CLOSER TO 50 IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN MOST CASES.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION.

AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF
I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK
OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 241946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION.

AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF
I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK
OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GRAZING INTO OUR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE SKIES TO THE SOUTH ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 3KM
HRRR SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN
VT. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GRAZING INTO OUR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE SKIES TO THE SOUTH ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 3KM
HRRR SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN
VT. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 241046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX EXPECTED AS WELL AS A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX EXPECTED AS WELL AS A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA





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