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000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.










000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.











000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS














000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.










000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.









000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS














000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 301049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANC SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANC SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 301041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 301041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 300818
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
.HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


















000
FXUS61 KALY 300818
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
.HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

















000
FXUS61 KALY 300816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
.HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT TODAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV














000
FXUS61 KALY 300816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
.HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT TODAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV















000
FXUS61 KALY 300814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT TODAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 300814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. IFR SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED THAT CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AGAIN ONCE MORE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS ENSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AS A RESULT IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...THE SURFACE WIND HAS REMAINED NEARLY CALM AND WITH A
CLEARING SKY ONCE MORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED DOWN WELL INTO THE
50S.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS FROM THE WIND...BUT THAT WILL THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIM THE SUN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 THROUGH THE AREA...SO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT TODAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 300600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EDT...A 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD MA...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO SEA. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS
WERE NOW OVER THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO MUCH MORE IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE MIGHT RELAX ONE MORE TIME AND ALLOW SOME OF THESE AREAS
TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR THAT REASON...MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ACTUALLY ROSE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR...INTO THE MID 60S. MOST OTHER
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ANY WIND...HAD DIPPED INTO THE 50S
EVEN WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG.

SO FOR THE THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...DID ADD A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS...SOME PATCHY
FOG (PROBABLY NOT IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION) AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE
CAPITAL REGION).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCSIAONL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTYH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KALY 300600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EDT...A 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD MA...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO SEA. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS
WERE NOW OVER THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO MUCH MORE IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE MIGHT RELAX ONE MORE TIME AND ALLOW SOME OF THESE AREAS
TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR THAT REASON...MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ACTUALLY ROSE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR...INTO THE MID 60S. MOST OTHER
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ANY WIND...HAD DIPPED INTO THE 50S
EVEN WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG.

SO FOR THE THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...DID ADD A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS...SOME PATCHY
FOG (PROBABLY NOT IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION) AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE
CAPITAL REGION).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN SOME AREAS HAS
PUT A HOLD ON FOG FORMATION THUS FAR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
AT KALB/KPOU...OCCSIAONL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KPOU...AND A DECENT
BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB WILL PREVENT IFR FOG FORMATION AT THESE
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AT KALB.

ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD BE GONE BY 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM AT KGFL/KPSF THROUGH A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTYH AT KALB BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND LIGHT
SOUTH (UNDER 5 KTS) AT KPOU. AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT ALL LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS














000
FXUS61 KALY 300425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EDT...A 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD MA...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO SEA. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS
WERE NOW OVER THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO MUCH MORE IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE MIGHT RELAX ONE MORE TIME AND ALLOW SOME OF THESE AREAS
TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR THAT REASON...MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ACTUALLY ROSE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR...INTO THE MID 60S. MOST OTHER
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ANY WIND...HAD DIPPED INTO THE 50S
EVEN WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG.

SO FOR THE THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...DID ADD A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS...SOME PATCHY
FOG (PROBABLY NOT IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION) AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE
CAPITAL REGION).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE ARE FORECASTING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 5SM
POSSIBLE AT KPOU FROM THE RADIATION FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 300425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EDT...A 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD MA...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO SEA. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS
WERE NOW OVER THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS WILL SERVE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO MUCH MORE IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE MIGHT RELAX ONE MORE TIME AND ALLOW SOME OF THESE AREAS
TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FOR THAT REASON...MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE THE
FACT THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY ACTUALLY ROSE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR...INTO THE MID 60S. MOST OTHER
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ANY WIND...HAD DIPPED INTO THE 50S
EVEN WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG.

SO FOR THE THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...DID ADD A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS...SOME PATCHY
FOG (PROBABLY NOT IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION) AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE
CAPITAL REGION).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE ARE FORECASTING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 5SM
POSSIBLE AT KPOU FROM THE RADIATION FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 300137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM...HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA TODAY...IS NOW OVER CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS TROUGH
BUT ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS IS FAIRLY SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS STILL JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.

STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AN SATURDAY... AND SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN COLDER SPOTS. NOT FORECASTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BUT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE ARE FORECASTING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 5SM POSSIBLE AT
KPOU FROM THE RADIATION FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 300000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RADAR HAS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE OF NARROW STREAKS OF CIRRUS.

UPDATE WAS MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. BASED
ON SATELLITE LOOP...STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING SOME INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
COLDER SPOTS. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE ARE FORECASTING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 5SM POSSIBLE AT
KPOU FROM THE RADIATION FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 300000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RADAR HAS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE OF NARROW STREAKS OF CIRRUS.

UPDATE WAS MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. BASED
ON SATELLITE LOOP...STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING SOME INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
COLDER SPOTS. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE ARE FORECASTING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 5SM POSSIBLE AT
KPOU FROM THE RADIATION FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









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