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000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING EAST...AND WILL
SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY
BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA
ITS FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1119 AM...UPDATE TO INITIALIZE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY UP 3-5 DEGREES AS SUNSHINE HAS WARMED BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH.

STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST SOUTH OF ELMIRA
NY. INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA
ITS FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1119 AM...UPDATE TO INITIALIZE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY UP 3-5 DEGREES AS SUNSHINE HAS WARMED BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH.

STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST SOUTH OF ELMIRA
NY. INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM...MUCH OF OUR REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE...NOW OVER
OHIO...MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 20 TO LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

STILL LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST WEST OF ELMIRA NY. INITIALLY
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND A
RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION
STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. BY
NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM...MUCH OF OUR REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE...NOW OVER
OHIO...MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 20 TO LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

STILL LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST WEST OF ELMIRA NY. INITIALLY
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND A
RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION
STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. BY
NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 302227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 302227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 301639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 301639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND





000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS





000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURS