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000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 282006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.  RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART
MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED
A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND
CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THOSE AREA.

THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT
KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE
OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG
WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM.
THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE
H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE.
AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
DAY BREAK.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE
POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 270844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 270844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 270737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK. WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE 70S MOST AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 261735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME BUILDING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A
SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 261735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME BUILDING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A
SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 261431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY GET CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. A PERIOD OF ADDED CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT
EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
IT WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 09Z AT THE TAF SITES SO HAVE ADDED 3SM
SHRA OVC025 TO THE TAFS.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 261431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY GET CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. A PERIOD OF ADDED CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT
EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
IT WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 09Z AT THE TAF SITES SO HAVE ADDED 3SM
SHRA OVC025 TO THE TAFS.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 261024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 615AM...MID LEVEL SHORT WV WAS TRANSITING EPA...SPREADING AREAS OF HI
AND MID CLOUDS INTO FCA.THESE ARE MVNG EAST...AND WILL EXIT MOST
OF AREAS NEXT 2 HOURS. OTRW TEMPS AND REST OF FCST IS IN GOOD
COND. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO IMPV COORD.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
IT WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 09Z AT THE TAF SITES SO HAVE ADDED 3SM
SHRA OVC025 TO THE TAFS.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 260819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 260819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 260724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 260724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
324 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 260553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS SO FAR KEPT DAY 3 OUTLOOK WEST OF BGM.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 260553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS SO FAR KEPT DAY 3 OUTLOOK WEST OF BGM.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 260534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF
WATER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS SO FAR KEPT DAY 3 OUTLOOK WEST OF BGM.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 260534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF
WATER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS SO FAR KEPT DAY 3 OUTLOOK WEST OF BGM.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 260418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF
WATER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURES A DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A
POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER
THE GFS IS DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT
LAKES DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY.
TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL FORCING. SO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY LOWER TO IFR AT KPSF. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AT 5
TO10 KNOTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 260418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF
WATER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURES A DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A
POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER
THE GFS IS DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT
LAKES DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY.
TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL FORCING. SO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY LOWER TO IFR AT KPSF. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AT 5
TO10 KNOTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 260149
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN FAVORED
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A
DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS
DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR
7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS
FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL
FORCING. SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY LOWER TO IFR AT KPSF. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AT 5
TO10 KNOTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 260149
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN FAVORED
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A
DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS
DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR
7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS
FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL
FORCING. SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY LOWER TO IFR AT KPSF. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AT 5
TO10 KNOTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV









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