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000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.


FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.


FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 301030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHILE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 300212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHILE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 292344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVEN INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR VALLEY AREAS WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER IN ABSENT OR THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 292344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVEN INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR VALLEY AREAS WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER IN ABSENT OR THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. ANY FOG OR STRATUS NOW
LONG GONE. SHALLOW DIURNAL CU WAS SEEN ON OUR VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE DO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB...SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ALONG WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. ANY FOG OR STRATUS NOW
LONG GONE. SHALLOW DIURNAL CU WAS SEEN ON OUR VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE DO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB...SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ALONG WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 291032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.

ANY PATCHY FOG AT KPSF/KGFL WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z-
13Z/SATURDAY. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 291032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.

ANY PATCHY FOG AT KPSF/KGFL WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z-
13Z/SATURDAY. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 290930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 290930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11





000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 290440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 290421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 290421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 290231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND IS SPREADING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE
BEEN FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH 50S AND LOW 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND IS SPREADING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE
BEEN FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH 50S AND LOW 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 290231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND IS SPREADING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE
BEEN FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH 50S AND LOW 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 290231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND IS SPREADING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ESP FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE
BEEN FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH 50S AND LOW 60S.

THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 40S IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR
RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE FOG IN THE FCST WILL
BE MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A PLEASANT START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST IS
EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO +15C IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GOOD MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING FURTHER OFF THE COAST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT OR THERMAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A WEAK
H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NRN NY/SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. WE
KEPT THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING
OFF AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS COOL AS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE NAM WOULD HAVE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK...BUT THE NAM
WOULD HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY
TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY WEAK ON THE GFS WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE
NAM HAS A BIT MORE DUE TO MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY /MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/.
THESE LOOK TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN SOME SFC INSTABILITY AMOUNTS OF 500
J/KG OR LESS MAY FOCUS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OVER THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS. WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
HERE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WERE USED NORTH OF THE TRI
CITIES DUE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND H850
TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND M70S
TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL...BUT
VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO OCCUR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND/OR FRIDAY AS CONVECTION RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT HAVE ONLY
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
DEW FORMATION...AND THEY WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCT LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




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