000
FXUS61 KALY 190015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES
ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
AT NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND.
AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.
FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AT KPSF. AT KALB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE A
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. AT KGFL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED T DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
KGFL.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE BL LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL/KPSF. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM/IAA
000
FXUS61 KALY 182016
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.
FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...MAINLY SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. THIS COULD LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET WEATHER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 181729
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD...NOW APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. TEMPS
TO THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
WITHIN POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS AND 70S
ELSEWHERE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS NW CT/SW MA AND THE SE
CATSKILLS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40-45 KT IN THIS
REGION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER...ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO
INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WITHIN TSTMS. WILL STILL
HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD CO
CT...AS THE SFC FRONT POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH AN INCOMING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...THIS MAY ACT TO SLOW
DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS COULD EASILY OCCUR WHERE
TRAINING ECHOES DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS
NORTH...BUT REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX
TEMPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS MAY STILL RISE 3-5
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY AROUND 21Z IF SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS CAN OCCUR FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL GENERALLY ONLY RECOVER
INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT CURRENT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 70S...AND PERHAPS INTO THE 60S
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 181450
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME HEATING IN SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY
SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SO SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIX
COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 181125
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KALY 181001
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...T
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KALY 180846
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL
000
FXUS61 KALY 180558
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS SO HAVE UPDATED
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 180447
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS SO HAVE UPDATED
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. TUES
IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WITH MVFR CONDS PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN
AND WHERE TD ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF
FCA. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 180106
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
906 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CDFNT STRADDLES N TIER...AND IT CONTS TO TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA
AND PATCHY CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS FCA
AS WK BUBBLE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN. FCA WILL SEE A LULL OVERNIGHT
WITH FAIR CONDS. FRONT WILL RESUME ITS DRIFT S TWRD MORNING.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. TUES
IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WITH MVFR CONDS PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN
AND WHERE TD ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF
FCA. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 172322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED ACROSS OTSEGO CO NY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS FOR INTENSITY...AND
ALSO RAINFALL RATES...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TO MHWK VLY. TUES IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.
CURRENT ISOLD -SHRA/SHOULD END NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A FEW
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR CONDS
PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN AND WHERE TD ARE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF FCA. CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.
TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 172220
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED ACROSS OTSEGO CO NY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS FOR INTENSITY...AND
ALSO RAINFALL RATES...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACKBUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 172107
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM ALBANY AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...WESTERN
MA AND FAR NW CT. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING S/E OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SB CAPES ARE A BIT LOWER IN THIS AREA...GENERALLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS A BIT
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE AT 40-45 KT. STILL EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THIS AREA...PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS...ESP DUE TO STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S. THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER/MORE SHALLOW CORES COMPARED TO EARLIER.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACKBUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.
BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD OR AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171733
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD OR AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT...MUCH OF THE REGION IS NOW WITHIN SPC/S SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171407
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WEAK BROAD COLD FRONT...THAT WILLONLY GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON...AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT INSTABILITY...AND SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT NOT MUCH OF A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR LOW LEVEL FORCING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THEN IN AREAS OF TERRAIN SUCH AS THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...BUT SHOULD ALSO TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BORDER ON SEVERE. SO...ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE STILL
WET...BUT SLOWLY DRYING GROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
CURRENT FORECASTED LEVELS SO FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IF ANY.
PREV AFD BELOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 171129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM...NO SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE ALY FORECAST AREA
OR MOVING TOWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD SHOWERS ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170951
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM...NO SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE ALY FORECAST AREA
OR MOVING TOWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD SHOWERS ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREA RADARS ONLY
SHOWING ONE TSTM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS OF 415 AM. EXPECT
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AT SCATTERED LEVELS...SO HAVE FORECAST NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. GFS CAPE VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHILE THE NAM IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH WERE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
WEAKER. HIGHER NAM VALUES RESULT FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES IN HE
MODEL. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NY. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND HAVE NOT
HIGHLIGHTED ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE NAM AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE GFS AND
MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELITE PICS...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED UNTIL LAKE HURON...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MAV GUIDANCE LEVELS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE WEEK...AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...KENX AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS FROM THE ALBANY AREA WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN THRUST OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THEN
TOWARDS BERKSHIRE COUNTY. WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THESE AREAS...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY POPS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMP GRIDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.
ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170524
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE WEEK...AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...KENX AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS FROM THE ALBANY AREA WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN THRUST OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THEN
TOWARDS BERKSHIRE COUNTY. WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THESE AREAS...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY POPS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMP GRIDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAFS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE SOME IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KGFL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KGFL LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. THE LACK OF RAIN (TODAY) AND A LITTLE BREEZE BEHIND
THE TROUGH MIGHT PREVENT IFR FOG AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WE DID PLACE MVFR FOG IN WITH NO RESTRICTING CIGS OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE MORNING PEAK. CONFIDENCE OF THIS WAS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH
(ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME RAIN DID FALL AT KGFL. ASSUMING NOT MUCH OF
BREEZE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LESS OVERNIGHT...WE DECIDED TO TO
PLACE IFR FOG IN THAT TAF...BEGINNING AS TEMPO GROUP AT 04Z...THEN
PREVAILING FROM 06Z ON. AGAIN CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS MODERATE (NOT
HIGH)...ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY AS BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST PICKS UP TO 5-10KTS. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z). FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THAT ANY TAF SITES WOULD
SEE IFR OR EVEN MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 170239
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FEW IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE TRACKING A FEW CELLS WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST THAT HAVE WORKED OFF LAKE ONTARIO (AND BUFFALO ISSUED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR)...HAVE WEAKENED BUT NOT ENTIRELY AS THEY
APPROACH HERKIMER COUNTY. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE CELLS COULD HOLD
TOGETHER DOWN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT AS WEAK ONES.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE CLOUDS DID IN FACT DIMINISH AROUND THE REGION AND AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE USUAL
FOG PRONE PLACES.
FOR NOW...CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH 100 AM.
OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. LOOK FOR LOWS
AROUND 60 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAFS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE SOME IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KGFL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KGFL LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. THE LACK OF RAIN (TODAY) AND A LITTLE BREEZE BEHIND
THE TROUGH MIGHT PREVENT IFR FOG AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WE DID PLACE MVFR FOG IN WITH NO RESTRICTING CIGS OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE MORNING PEAK. CONFIDENCE OF THIS WAS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH
(ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME RAIN DID FALL AT KGFL. ASSUMING NOT MUCH OF
BREEZE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LESS OVERNIGHT...WE DECIDED TO TO
PLACE IFR FOG IN THAT TAF...BEGINNING AS TEMPO GROUP AT 04Z...THEN
PREVAILING FROM 06Z ON. AGAIN CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS MODERATE (NOT
HIGH)...ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY AS BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST PICKS UP TO 5-10KTS. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z). FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THAT ANY TAF SITES WOULD
SEE IFR OR EVEN MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 162349
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FEW IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT...A WIND SHIFT LINE WAS WORKING TOWARD THE HUDSON
VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD LEAVING FOR LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL FORCING. IN FACT...SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM.
WITH THIS IN MIND...LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING EVERYWHERE (EXCEPT
WIDELY SCATTERED) WHERE ARE FEW WERE HAPPENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG FORMING BUT IT IS ALREADY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.
NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT A FEW PLACES MIGHT NEED TO BE
LOWERED A SMIDGEN BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL 9-10 PM BEFORE MAKING ANY
MOVES. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS
UPDATE.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO DIMINISH A
LITTLE WITH THAT OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE.
LATER ON...DO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO THIN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
LOCALLY...50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAFS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE SOME IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KGFL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KGFL LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. THE LACK OF RAIN (TODAY) AND A LITTLE BREEZE BEHIND
THE TROUGH MIGHT PREVENT IFR FOG AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WE DID PLACE MVFR FOG IN WITH NO RESTRICTING CIGS OVERNIGHT
UNTIL THE MORNING PEAK. CONFIDENCE OF THIS WAS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH
(ABOUT 70 PERCENT).
ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME RAIN DID FALL AT KGFL. ASSUMING NOT MUCH OF
BREEZE THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LESS OVERNIGHT...WE DECIDED TO TO
PLACE IFR FOG IN THAT TAF...BEGINNING AS TEMPO GROUP AT 04Z...THEN
PREVAILING FROM 06Z ON. AGAIN CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS MODERATE (NOT
HIGH)...ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY AS BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST PICKS UP TO 5-10KTS. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z). FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THAT ANY TAF SITES WOULD
SEE IFR OR EVEN MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 162248
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FEW IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT...A WIND SHIFT LINE WAS WORKING TOWARD THE HUDSON
VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD LEAVING FOR LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL FORCING. IN FACT...SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATED A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM.
WITH THIS IN MIND...LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING EVERYWHERE (EXCEPT
WIDELY SCATTERED) WHERE ARE FEW WERE HAPPENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG FORMING BUT IT IS ALREADY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.
NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT A FEW PLACES MIGHT NEED TO BE
LOWERED A SMIDGEN BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL 9-10 PM BEFORE MAKING ANY
MOVES. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS
UPDATE.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO DIMINISH A
LITTLE WITH THAT OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE.
LATER ON...DO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO THIN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
LOCALLY...50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 162008
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH DURING THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR PATTERN
RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT /WARM FRONT/ ARE RESULTING IN A
REGION OF SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I90. THIS ALSO COINCIDES
WITH THE BEST THERMAL ADVECTION FIELDS AS THIS IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN-CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. A VERY DRY H500 LAYER QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS DRY LAYER SINKS
FURTHER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WARRANT
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TRICKY TOO AS LATEST 1KM VIS IMAGERY FROM GOES-E DOES SUGGEST
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA SO WE WILL FAVOR
SOME BREAKS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. DUE TO A VERY SATURATED
GROUND...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS COULD
DECOUPLE...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE THE RESULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
PLACE THIS IN MAINLY THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.
MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.
THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.
WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.
BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KALY 161741
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN THEREFORE REDUCING SOLAR INSOLATION. WE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHIELD
WAS IMPACTING MAINLY TH DACKS WITH EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM
THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WITH A DEVELOPING TRAIL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I90
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
AS OF 930 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA...AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KALY 161731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA...AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
000
FXUS61 KALY 161342
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA...AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW
GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT OF LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF AND POSSIBLY AT KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND DIMINISH TONIGHT
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK RIVER FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW
DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
000
FXUS61 KALY 161055
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM LAKE
HURON AND MI. A WEAK WARM FRONT OR A PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA...AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW
GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT OF LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF AND POSSIBLY AT KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND DIMINISH TONIGHT
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK RIVER FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW
DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
000
FXUS61 KALY 160828
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT OR A PRE FRONTAL
THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NY-PA
BORDER...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW
GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT OF LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF AND POSSIBLY AT KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND DIMINISH TONIGHT
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK RIVER FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW
DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/11
000
FXUS61 KALY 160613
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NY AND PA. THE
LIGHT PCPN ECHOES OVER NW PA IS VIRGA AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE
STARTING TO DROP OFF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE NORTH ADAMS IN THE BERKSHIRES FELL INTO
THE U40S QUICKLY. HOURLY T/TD/RH TRENDS RETOOLED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE CLOUD AND PCPN TRENDS
BASED ON THE INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE. A SLIGHTLY LATER START IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NY AROUND MID
DAY TO SE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY EVENING. WHILE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BY AFT...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
DIFFICULT CALL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF HELICITY
IS IN PLACE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES BTWN 150 AND 250
M2/S2...BUT SB CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST...SHOWALTER
INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE
RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.25 C/KM TOWARD EVENING. PWATS ALSO NOT VARY
HIGH BRIEFLY ABOVE 1.5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING FROM NW TO
SE BY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CALL FOR
SHOWERS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LESS OF A CHANCE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS STILL UNCLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SB CAPES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6-6.25 C/KM
WITH GENERALLY 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW WITH LACK INSTABILITY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
FA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN OF DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A POTENTIAL NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL FINALLY PROVIDE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AFTER THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...ALBEIT MUCH LESS THAN RECENT WEEKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN OF NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER THE THREAT OF
LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF AND POSSIBLY AT KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND WEAKEN.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE RH TRENDS WILL FAVOR DEW FORMATION THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT. AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AVERAGE BASIN TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER OF THE HSA TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS.
THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
000
FXUS61 KALY 160539
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NY AND PA. THE
LIGHT PCPN ECHOES OVER NW PA IS VIRGA AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE
STARTING TO DROP OFF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE NORTH ADAMS IN THE BERKSHIRES FELL INTO
THE U40S QUICKLY. HOURLY T/TD/RH TRENDS RETOOLED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE CLOUD AND PCPN TRENDS
BASED ON THE INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE. A SLIGHTLY LATER START IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NY AROUND MID
DAY TO SE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY EVENING. WHILE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BY AFT...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
DIFFICULT CALL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF HELICITY
IS IN PLACE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES BTWN 150 AND 250
M2/S2...BUT SB CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST...SHOWALTER
INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE
RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.25 C/KM TOWARD EVENING. PWATS ALSO NOT VARY
HIGH BRIEFLY ABOVE 1.5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING FROM NW TO
SE BY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CALL FOR
SHOWERS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LESS OF A CHANCE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS STILL UNCLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SB CAPES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6-6.25 C/KM
WITH GENERALLY 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW WITH LACK INSTABILITY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
FA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN OF DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A POTENTIAL NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL FINALLY PROVIDE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AFTER THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...ALBEIT MUCH LESS THAN RECENT WEEKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN OF NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING ALONG WITH NEARLY A CLOUDLESS
SKY AS WELL AS UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES DROP...THEY LOOK TO COME CLOSE TO
BUT NOT QUITE REACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS TO
HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD
BE AT KGFL...WHERE THE GROUND IS WET AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. MITIGATING THE
FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL FOG HOWEVER IS A COMBINATION OF THE SHORT
NIGHT...A LINGERING LIGHT BREEZE...AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND THE FACT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AS OPPOSED TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...JUST USED VCFG BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT KGFL AND ACTUALLY USED
VCFG AT KPOU/KPSF 08Z-12Z. SO WE FIGURE THE ODDS ARE AROUND 50
PERCENT FOR IFR FOG TO FORM...SO CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO INCLUDE IT
IN ANY TAFS. AS USUAL...PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER FOR ANY POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO OUR THINKING. THE THREAT OF IFR FOG AT KALB LOOKS EVEN
LOWER...25 PERCENT OR LESS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES BY MIDDAY AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU...WHERE THE
CHANCES THERE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SO NOW JUST WENT WITH
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL OUR TAFS LATER ON
THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS LATER
ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE EVNG.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA. MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE RH TRENDS WILL FAVOR DEW FORMATION THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT. AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AVERAGE BASIN TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER OF THE HSA TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS.
THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
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