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000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DARK. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...SO WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 212345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DARK. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...SO WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA... SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN HAVE DISSIPATED...
BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM

















000
FXUS61 KALY 211856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM













000
FXUS61 KALY 211856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM














000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
11100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 211503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
11100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
830 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED A LOT OF A PATCHY
CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THESE WERE THE RESULT OF A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBES INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER BUT BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONE.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND H650. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 211235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
830 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED A LOT OF A PATCHY
CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THESE WERE THE RESULT OF A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBES INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER BUT BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONE.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND H650. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 211025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 210742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR ALL
TAF SITES. SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF DURING ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...AS T/TD SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW. ELSEWHERE...NO FOG IS
EXPECTED. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME
ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH
IN THE TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5
KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE...BUT SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 210523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR ALL
TAF SITES. SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF DURING ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...AS T/TD SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW. ELSEWHERE...NO FOG IS
EXPECTED. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME
ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH
IN THE TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5
KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE...BUT SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 210509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 210509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 210241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING FROM CENTRAL NY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO RAISE
CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. AS
A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL. PATCHY FOG
STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 210241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING FROM CENTRAL NY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO RAISE
CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. AS
A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL. PATCHY FOG
STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 202020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TAKING ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND COMFORTABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT...STILL JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE IT IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY
(DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S).

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK FOR ANY SHOWERS IN HERKIMER
COUNTY TO MOVE OUT...REPLACED BY AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL FROM 75-80 TO 65-70 SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER SUNSET...LOOK FOR A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO WIND AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE 50S LATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY
CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAF FORECASTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 KTS OR LESS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...THEN UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT OR CALM...THEN INCREASING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF PM SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 201743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TAKING ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND COMFORTABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT...SO THEY SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION BY SUNDOWN.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED TWO POCKETS OF CU DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND UP NORTH...BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF LEFTOVER
MOISTURE. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOWED LITTLE OR NOT SIGNS OF REAL CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE WAS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CALLED IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE.
DESPITE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...THE 12Z RAOB SUPPORTED ONGOING
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WE ARE IN A MARITIME AIRMASS.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAF FORECASTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 KTS OR LESS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...THEN UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT OR CALM...THEN INCREASING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY AND AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS















000
FXUS61 KALY 201714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TAKING ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND COMFORTABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT...SO THEY SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION BY SUNDOWN.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED TWO POCKETS OF CU DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND UP NORTH...BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF LEFTOVER
MOISTURE. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOWED LITTLE OR NOT SIGNS OF REAL CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE WAS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CALLED IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE.
DESPITE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...THE 12Z RAOB SUPPORTED ONGOING
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WE ARE IN A MARITIME AIRMASS.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY AND AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 201714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TAKING ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND COMFORTABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT...SO THEY SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION BY SUNDOWN.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED TWO POCKETS OF CU DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND UP NORTH...BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF LEFTOVER
MOISTURE. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOWED LITTLE OR NOT SIGNS OF REAL CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE WAS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CALLED IT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE.
DESPITE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...THE 12Z RAOB SUPPORTED ONGOING
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WE ARE IN A MARITIME AIRMASS.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY AND AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 201646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 201646
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 201039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 201039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 200748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING.
OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA.  GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS.  MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.

IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 200748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING.
OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.  OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.  WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS.  THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA.  GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS.  MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.

IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 200534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED OVER
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...WE
EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO SHEAR
OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS OF NE PA THANKS TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THESE SHOWERS ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WHILE ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
STILL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE CONSIDERING IT/S MID
JULY...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SUNDAY. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +17C TO +18C.
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...THERE WILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE WARMEST
CORE OF AIR AT 850 MB OF AROUND +19C MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
WAVE THAT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA /GFS/ OR FARTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND /ECMWF/. EITHER
WAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS IS LAGGING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACES
WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW
AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA.  GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS.  MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.

IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AT AROUND
5 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
MONDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 200534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED OVER
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...WE
EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO SHEAR
OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS OF NE PA THANKS TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THESE SHOWERS ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WHILE ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
STILL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE CONSIDERING IT/S MID
JULY...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SUNDAY. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +17C TO +18C.
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...THERE WILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE WARMEST
CORE OF AIR AT 850 MB OF AROUND +19C MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
WAVE THAT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA /GFS/ OR FARTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND /ECMWF/. EITHER
WAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS IS LAGGING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACES
WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW
AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA.  GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS.  MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.

IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AT AROUND
5 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
MONDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 192336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT...AS SUNSET APPROACHES THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING
WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ENVELOPE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A SHEARING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY TO PERHAPS MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN SOME SPOTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
CLOSE TO 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SUNDAY. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +17C TO +18C.
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...THERE WILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE WARMEST
CORE OF AIR AT 850 MB OF AROUND +19C MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
WAVE THAT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA /GFS/ OR FARTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND /ECMWF/. EITHER
WAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS IS LAGGING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACES
WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW
AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY ENVELOPE THE
AREA LATER ON SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE
THICK FOG FORMATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SO WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBY WITH BR AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT KALB/KPOU. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH A FEW CU IN
VFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AT AROUND
5 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
MONDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 192336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT...AS SUNSET APPROACHES THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING
WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ENVELOPE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A SHEARING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY TO PERHAPS MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN SOME SPOTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
CLOSE TO 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SUNDAY. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +17C TO +18C.
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...THERE WILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE WARMEST
CORE OF AIR AT 850 MB OF AROUND +19C MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
WAVE THAT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA /GFS/ OR FARTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND /ECMWF/. EITHER
WAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS IS LAGGING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACES
WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW
AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY ENVELOPE THE
AREA LATER ON SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE
THICK FOG FORMATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SO WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBY WITH BR AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT KALB/KPOU. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH A FEW CU IN
VFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AT AROUND
5 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
MONDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









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